Special Analysis Results, Unstable Period Prior to Dec 1998 Removed


Detailed analyses for registered formal hypotheses are linked from their table entries.

Exploratory Studies provide additional insight, and help develop formal hypotheses.

The Original Version of the analysis used theoretical normalization.



Introduction


Nine years after its inception, the GCP continues to develop. There are over 65 active eggs as of mid 2007, in Europe, the US, Canada, India, Fiji, New Zealand, Japan, China, Russia, Brazil, Africa, Thailand, and Australia. We hypothesize that our instruments (the "eggs") will show anomalous deviations associated with Global Events when there is widespread participation or reaction to the event, and we can expect large-scale coherence and resonance.

The GCP Hypothesis Registry provides narrative descriptions of tests made up to mid 2003, and formal specifications, including identification of the rigorous subset we use for statistical inferences, are given in the Formal Hypothesis list.

Statistical evaluations use a "normalized" database, with normalization based on an empirical estimate of variance for each egg, calculated from its full database of trials. In addition we exclude all "bad data" identified by standardized rules (e.g., trial scores outside the range 55 to 145 are almost certainly errors). The formal database also excludes 13 poorly defined or partially redundant events marked in the table with a red asterisk. Cases with no normalized calculation are marked with a double asterisk. Statistics for very recent events (marked with ~) will change slightly when normalized calculations are done.

Deeper analysis in early 2008 showed that several early events, prior to December 1998 were recorded when the network was unstable, resulting in a risk of bias. Table 1 shows the composite result for all formally specified events that meet our stringent critera for rigorous definition and analysis. It includes a second row with the first 10 events removed from the database.

In Table 2, the results for individual events are shown. Table entries for most events have direct links to more comprehensive analyses. The events are identified by name, and a column with the heading, "Hypothesis Source", indicates who made the prediction. The number of contributing "REGs" is shown, and the "Resolution", which indicates the block-size for the analysis. The last two columns show the Z-score statistic for the analysis, and its associated probability.

Following Table 2 we visualize the numerical results summarized in Table 1 and detailed in Table 2. The accumulating evidence for the general hypothesis is shown in a chronological graph for the rigorous subset. In such a display the terminal value corresponds to the overall Z-score.


Table 1: Overall Summary of Results, August 1998 to November 2007

Category Hypothesis Number of Events Stouffer Z Probability
Rigorously Defined Events Positive Trend 245 4.971 3.335x10-7
Dec 1 1998 to Jan 1 2008 Positive Trend 236 4.528 2.970x10-6


Table 2: Results for Individual Events

red = significant; light red = predicted direction; green = opposite and significant

Event Description Hypothesis Source REGs Resolution Z-score

Probability

1. Embassy Bombings, 980807 Nelson 3 15-min 3.209 0.001
2. * Omagh Bombings, 980815 Nelson 4 15-min -0.675 0.750
3. US Airstrikes, Afghanistan, 980820 Nelson 6 15-min 1.146 0.126
4. Swissair 111 crash, 980903 Nelson 5 15-min 1.336 0.091
5. McGwire, record homerun, 980908 Nelson 9 15-min 1.320 0.093
6. Clinton Affair Grand Jury, 980911 Nelson 6 15-min 0.387 0.349
7. Nicaragua, Casitas collapse, 981030 Nelson 5 15-min -1.085 0.861
8. Nicaragua, Casitas flooding, 981030 Nelson 5 15-min 1.215 0.113
9. Global Peace Vigil, Twyman, 981113 Nelson 5 15-min 1.223 0.111
10. * Iraq, 11th hour decision, 981126? Nelson 4 15-min -0.412 0.659
11. World Peace Prayer, 981210 Nelson 7 15-min -0.135 0.554
12. Iraq, Bombing, 981217 Nelson 7 15-min -0.535 0.704
13. House votes impeachment, 981219 Nelson 7 15-min -0.934 0.825
14. Christmas Eve, UTC, 981224 Etzold 8 15-min -1.026 0.848
15. Christmas Eve, EST, 981224 Etzold 8 15-min -0.079 0.531
16. Christmas Eve, PST, 981224 Etzold 8 15-min -0.715 0.763
17. New Years, 24 hrs, 981231 Nelson 9 1-sec -0.171 0.568
18. * New Years, Times Square, 981231 Nelson 9 1-sec 0.871 0.208
19. ** New Years, Euro vs US, 981231 Bierman 9 1-sec 0.845 0.199
20. ** New Years, Maxi vs Mini, 981231 Broughton 9 1-sec (Diff) 1.165 0.122
21. Columbia, Armenia Quake, 990125 Nelson 9 15-min 0.823 0.205
22. Senate acquits Clinton, 990212 Nelson 10 15-min 0.217 0.414
23. Nato Bombs Yugoslavia, 990324 Nelson 12 15-min 1.691 0.045
24. Dow Closes Over 10000, 990329 Cohen, Nelson 12 15-min 0.384 0.350
25. Praying for Peace, 990403 to 0503 Taylor Var 1-min 0.819 0.206
26. Littleton School Tragedy, 990420 Polk 11 15-min -0.844 0.801
27. Autonomy, Israel, PLO, 990505 Kraak 17 15-min -0.057 0.523
28. "Peace at Last", Headlines, 990610 Nelson 17 15-min 0.505 0.307
29. Yugo War Ends, Milosevic, 990610 Nelson 17 15-min 1.313 0.095
30. * JFK Jr Crash, 30-min, 990717 Nelson 21 15-min 0.283 0.389
31. JFK Jr Crash, 3 Hours, 990717 Nelson 21 15-min 1.344 0.089
32. India, Train Crash, 990801 Nelson 17 15-min 1.813 0.035
33. * Solar Eclipse, 990811 Wackermann, Nelson 20 15-min -0.006 0.502
34. * Turkey, Earthquake, 30-min, 990817 Nelson 20 15-min -0.689 0.754
35. Turkey, Earthquake, 4 Hours, 990817 Nelson 20 15-min -0.171 0.568
36. Japan, Nuclear Accident, 990930 Nelson 21 15-min 1.088 0.138
37. Billion Person Meditation, 991025 Nelson 21 10-min 2.242 0.012
38. * Typhoon, India, 2 Hours, 991029 Nelson 22 15-min -0.583 0.720
39. Typhoon, India, 24 Hours, 991029-30 Nelson 23 15-min -0.039 0.516
40. Earthquake, Turkey II, 2 Hrs , 991112 Dunne 21 15-min -0.105 0.542
41. Full Moon, Solstice, 4.8 Min, 991222 Fournier 25 1-sec, epoch -0.845 0.801
42. New Year, Y2K, 24 hrs, 19991231 Nelson 28 1-sec, epoch -0.407 0.658
43. New Year, Y2K, Variance, 19991231 Radin 27 1-sec, epoch 0.157 0.438
44. ** Hi vs Low Populations, Y2K, 991231 Nelson 27 1-sec (diffs) -0.647 0.741
45. Just A Minute, 1 Min Epoch, 20000101 Srinivasan 27 1-sec, epoch 0.697 0.243
46. Papal Visit, Israel, 20000321-26 Reinhilde 27-29 1-min 2.428 0.008
47. Great Experiment II, 20000423 Nelson 26 1-sec -0.230 0.591
48. World Earth Healing Day, 20000504 Nelson 26-27 1-sec -0.413 0.660
49. Concorde Crash, Paris, 20000725 Reinhilde 23 1-sec -0.715 0.763
50. Kursk Tragedy, 30-min, 20000812 Nelson 27 1-sec 1.625 0.052
51. Kursk, 10 days, 20000812-21 Nelson 24-27 1-min 1.330 0.092
52. US TV: Survivors Finale, 20000824 Lettieri 26 1-sec -0.471 0.681
53. Peace Summit Relig Spirit, 20000828-31 Murali Dhar 26 1-min -0.446 0.672
54. Olympic Opening Ceremony, 20000915 Robin Taylor 25 1-sec 0.022 0.491
55. Group Mind Meditation, 20000924 Nelson 26 1-sec 1.720 0.043
56. Pierre Trudeau Funeral, 20001003 Chino Srinivasan 29 1-sec 1.982 0.024
57. Group Mind Meditation 2, 20001022 Matthew Webb 28 1-sec -2.085 0.981
58. US Election 2000, 20001107, 8, 9 ... Paul Bethke 30-32 1-sec 0.159 0.437
59. Group Mind Meditation 3, 20001112 Matthew Webb 30 1-sec 0.027 0.489
60. Group Mind Meditation 4, 20001126 Matthew Webb 29 1-sec -0.028 0.511
61. Miss World 2000, 20001130 Mukesh Garg 31 1-sec 1.242 0.107
62. US Election 2000, 20001208 Bethke, Nelson 27 1-sec 0.438 0.331
63. US Election 2000, Finality, 20001212 Nelson, Bethke 30 1-sec 0.934 0.175
64. New Year 2000-2001 Mean, 20010101 Nelson 34-35 1-sec -1.776 0.962
65. New Year 2000-2001 Var, 20010101 Nelson 34-35 1-sec -0.709 0.761
66. ** Lovewave 010101, 20010101 Nelson, Lettieri 34-35 1-sec 2.688 0.004
67. Central America Quake, 20010113 Nelson 35 1-sec 1.446 0.074
68. Bush Inauguration, 20010120 Nelson 32 1-sec -0.550 0.709
69. Kumbh Mela, India, 20010124 Panchal, Srinivasan 35 1-sec 1.457 0.073
70. Western India Quake, 20010126 Nelson 33 1-sec -1.042 0.851
71. WorldPuja Webcast, 20010331 Joanne Karl, Nelson 36 1-sec 0.591 0.277
72. Johrei Ceremonies, 20010401 Nelson, Ammar 36 1-sec, epoch 1.419 0.078
73. Earth Day, 2001, 20010422 Nelson 32 1-sec 1.595 0.055
74. Full Moon in Taurus, 20010507 Don Watson 28 1-sec 0.948 0.172
75. World Peace Meditation, 20010520 Masami Kondo 34 1-sec 0.773 0.220
76. World Earth Healing Day, 20010621 WEHD Organizer 31 1-sec 0.609 0.271
77. Roll Your Own Blackout, 20010621 Greg, Elissa, Roger 31 1-sec -0.807 0.790
78. Beijing Gets 2008 Olympics, 20010713 Peter Bancel 31 1-sec 0.681 0.248
79. Buddhist Stupa Ceremony, 20010809-17 Peter Bancel 34-37 1-min -0.213 0.584
80. Terrorist Disaster, Sept 11, 20010911 Nelson 37 1-sec 1.873 0.031
81. ** Terror, Variance, Sept 11, 20010911 Dean Radin, Nelson 37 1-sec 1.305 0.096
82. Silent Prayer, Sept 14, 20010914 Doug Mast 35 1-sec 1.087 0.139
83. Sea to Shining Sea, 20010922 Paul Bethke 37 1-sec 1.713 0.043
84. MUM Peace Meditation, 20010923-27 Orme-Johnson 37 1-sec 0.345 0.365
85. Begin Afghan Bombing, 20011007 Nelson 37 1-sec 0.684 0.247
86. Children Pledge Allegiance, 20011012 William Braud 34 1-sec 0.568 0.285
87. Binding Spell on Bin Laden, 20011015 Greg Nelson 35 1-sec 0.616 0.269
88. Assassination in Israel, 20011017 Joseph Menahem 37 1-sec 1.573 0.058
89. World Series, Yankee St, 20011031 Lettieri, Nelson 35 1-sec 0.267 0.395
90. World-Wide Meditation, 20011111 Wolf, Watson 38 1-sec -0.447 0.673
91. Crash of AA 587, 20011112 Nick Reiter, Nelson 39 1-sec -1.123 0.869
92. Ramadan Muslim Prayer, 20011116 Pasternak, Nelson 37 1-sec 1.836 0.033
93. WorldPuja Meditation, 20011116 Ferguson, Nelson 37 1-sec -0.802 0.789
94. George Harrison Tribute, 20011203 Watson, Nelson 42 1-sec 0.222 0.412
95. Sir Peter Blake Murdered, 20011206 Peter French 42 1-sec -0.908 0.818
96. Astrological Moments, 20011209-14 Anonymous, Nelson 42-43 1-sec 2.207 0.014
97. New Year 2001-2002, Mean, 20020101 Nelson 44 1-sec 1.466 0.071
98. New Year 2002, Var, 20020101 Nelson 44 1-sec 0.530 0.298
99. Volcanic Eruption, Congo, 20020117 Ouko, Nelson 46 1-sec -0.034 0.514
100. Astrid Lindgren Dies, 20020128 Suurküla, Nelson 46 1-sec 0.513 0.304
101. Winter Olympic Opening, 20020209 Nelson 46 1-sec 1.215 0.112
102. Sri Lanka Peace Meditation, 20020315 Johnson-Lenz 47 1-sec -0.085 0.534
103. Earthquake, Afghanistan, 20020325 Nelson 45 1-sec -0.680 0.752
104. Passover Bombing, 20020327 Roger Nelson 47 1-sec -.064 0.526
105. Jenin Incursion, Israel, 20020403 Hala Azzam, Nelson 47 1-sec 0.487 0.313
106. Tiger Woods Triumph, 20020414 Ray Anderson 46 1-sec -0.147 0.558
107. Indigo Peace Meditation, 20020420 Don Watson 44 1-sec -1.303 0.904
108. Erfurth School Shooting, 20020426 Roger Nelson 48 1-sec 0.756 0.225
109. World Cup Soccer, 20020607 Tobias Bodine 48 1-sec -0.082 0.533
110. Astrological Moments II, 20020620-23 Anonymous, Nelson 47-45 1-sec 1.208 0.114
111. Summer Solstice 2002, 20020621 Joe Giove 45 1-sec -0.636 0.738
112. World Cup Soccer, 20020630 Pedro de Oliveira 45 1-sec 0.147 0.442
113. World Healing Day, 20020822 Tremaine, Giove 50 1-sec 0.993 0.160
114. 911 Anniversary, March Pred, 20020911 Eckhard Etzold 50 1-sec 1.307 0.096
115. 911 Anniversary, Mean, 20020911 Mitchell, Nelson 50 1-sec -1.599 0.945
116. ** 911 Anniversary, Var, 20020911 Nelson 50 1-sec -0.313 0.623
117. Korea's Birthday, 20021003 Martin Bucholtz 51 1-sec -2.060 0.980
118. Bali Bombing, 20021012 Nelson 50 1-sec -0.274 0.608
119. Tyman in Baghdad, 20021012 Multiple Sources 50 1-sec 0.032 0.487
120. EarthDance 2002, 20021012 Petr Douza 50 1-sec -0.056 0.522
121. Wellstone Crash, 20021025 Nelson 51 1-sec 0.489 0.312
122. Chechen Hostage Crisis, 20021026 Nelson 51 1-sec 0.401 0.344
123. Kenyan Terrorist Attacks, 20021128 Pasternak 52 1-sec -0.700 0.758
124. Suicide Bombing, Grozny, 20021227 Nelson 51 1-sec -0.036 0.514
125. New Year, 2003, Mean , 20030101 Roger Nelson 54 1-sec -1.723 0.958
126. New Year, 2003, Var , 20030101 Roger Nelson 54 1-sec -0.303 0.619
127. Tel Aviv Bombing, 20030105 Gadi Guy 52 1-sec -0.008 0.503
128. Antiwar Protests, 20030118 Ashley Young 50 1-sec 1.207 0.114
129. Columbia Shuttle Disaster, 20030201 Various, Nelson 48 1-sec -1.014 0.845
130. Peace Meditations, 20030209 Various, Nelson 48 1-sec -0.244 0.596
131. Global Peace Demonstrations, 20030215 Nelson 48 1-sec 1.483 0.069
132. Korean Subway Fire, 20030218 Nelson 51 1-sec 0.625 0.266
133. Lysistrata and Women, 20030303 Nelson 50 1-sec -1.707 0.956
134. Gather The Women, 20030308 Carol Hansen Grey 50 1-sec -0.532 0.703
135. Serbian Assassination, 20030312 Nelson 50 1-sec -1.243 0.893
136. Candlelight Vigil, 20030316 Various & Nelson 51 1-sec 1.783 0.037
137. War in Iraq, 20030320 Nelson 48 1-sec -0.422 0.663
138. GE Prayer for Bush, 20030401 Nelson 51 1-sec -0.155 0.562
139. Saddam Falls, War Ends, 20030409 Nelson 52 1-sec 1.341 0.090
140. Bombing in Riyadh, 20030512 Nelson 53 1-sec 0.560 0.288
141. Bombing in Morroco, 20030516 Nelson 50 1-sec 1.071 0.142
142. Earthquake in Algeria, 20030521 Nelson 52 1-sec 0.551 0.291
143. Aqaba Summit, Middle East, 20030604 Nelson 54 1-sec 1.136 0.128
144. Rainbow 4th of July, 20030704 Nelson 54 1-sec -0.693 0.756
145. Love, Peace, Water, 20030725 Nelson 49 1-sec 0.154 0.439
146. Manila Coup Attempt, 20030727 Beth Macdonald 51 1-sec 1.054 0.146
147. Blackout 2003, 20030814 Nelson 48 1-sec -1.205 0.886
148. Baghdad, UN Bombing, 20030819 Nelson 45 1-sec -0.175 0.569
149. Mars Close Approach, 20030827 Adrian Patrut 49-50 1-sec 0.623 0.267
150. World Healing 2003, 20030910 Various 55 1-sec -1.082 0.860
151. 911 Anniversary, 20030911 Nelson 55 1-sec -0.382 0.649
152. Typhoon in Korea, 20030912 Nelson 55 1-sec 0.365 0.358
153. Dalai Lama in NYC, 20030921 Nelson 52 1-sec 0.145 0.442
154. Harmonic Concordance, 20031109 Mirehiel 52 1-sec 0.612 0.270
155. Turkish Synagogue Bomb, 20031115 Various 53 1-sec 0.425 0.335
156.Turkish Bank & Consulate, 20031120 Various 52 1-sec 0.091 0.464
157. Russian Bombing, 20031205 Nelson 50 1-sec -1.488 0.932
158. Saddam Hussein Captured, 20031213 Nelson 51 1-sec 0.451 0.326
159. Opra Winfrey in Africa, 20031218 Nelson 52 1-sec 0.711 0.239
160. Earthquake in Bam, Iran, 20031226 Nelson 53 1-sec 0.618 0.268
161. 60 Seconds for Peace, 20031227 Craig Hamilton 54 1-sec 1.303 0.096
162. New Year, 2004, Mean, 20040101 Nelson 54 1-sec 0.180 0.429
163. New Year, 2004, Var, 20040101 Nelson 54 1-sec -0.684 0.753
164. Hadj Ritual Tragedy, 20040201 Nelson 53 1-sec 0.742 0.229
165. Iran Train Explosion, 20040218 Nelson 52 1-sec 1.226 0.110
166. Oscar Ceremonies, 20040229 Nelson 57 1-sec 0.159 0.437
167. Attacks on Shiites, 20040302 Nelson 59 1-sec 0.617 0.269
168. Terror Attacks in Madrid, 20040311 Nelson, Lassen, Bierman 59 1-sec -1.971 0.976
169. Demonstrations in Spain, 20040312 Nelson, Lassen 59 1-sec 1.582 0.057
170. Global Day of Peace, 20040320 Carl Haag, Nelson 57 1-sec -1.324 0.907
171. Cricket, India vs Pakistan, 20040324 Srinivasan, Nelson 60 1-sec 1.243 0.107
172. Rantisi Assassiation, 20040417 Nelson 62 1-sec -1.110 0.867
173. Korean Train Explosion, 20040422 Don Watson 60 1-sec 0.746 0.228
174. Floods in Haiti, 20040524 Nelson 65 1-sec 0.534 0.297
175. Iraq Insurgent Bombs, 20040624 Nelson 63 1-sec 0.751 0.226
176. Train Crash, Turkey, 20040722 Don Watson 64 1-sec -0.854 0.803
177. Democratic Conv, Kerry, 20040729 Nelson 63 1-sec 1.881 0.030
178. Fire in Paraguay, 20040801 Nelson 64 1-sec 0.364 0.358
179. Bob Morris, 20040812 Berger, Nelson 63 1-sec 0.461 0.322
180. Olympic Opening Athens, 20040813 Axiomakaros, Piliounis, Nelson 61 1-sec -1.289 0.901
181. Day of Violence, 20040831 Nelson 64 1-sec 1.401 0.081
182. Republican Conv, Bush, 20040902 Nelson 57 1-sec -0.445 0.672
183. Russian School Hostages, 20040903 Nelson 57 1-sec 2.266 0.012
184. Earthdance 2004, 20040919 Nelson and Others 60 1-sec -1.490 0.932
185. Peace Vigil + Hurricane, 20040921 Nelson and Others 62 1-sec -1.533 0.937
186. Bombing, Taba, Egypt, 20041007 Nelson 63 1-sec 1.252 0.105
187. US Elections 2004, 20041102 Nelson and Others 64, 63 1-sec -1.223 0.889
188. Arafat Dead, 20041111 Nelson 64 1-sec 1.583 0.057
189. Tsunami Indian Ocean, 20041226 Nelson 62 1-sec 0.094 0.462
190. New Year, 2005, Mean, 20050101 Nelson 57 1-sec -0.634 0.737
191. New Year, 2005, Var, 20050101 Nelson 57 1-sec -1.838 0.967
192. Elections in Iraq, 20050130 Nelson 62 1-sec 1.606 0.054
193. Hariri Assassination, 20050214 Nelson 60 1-sec 0.169 0.433
194. Siyum Daf Yomi, 20050301 Spero 62 1-sec -0.091 0.536
195. Quake, Indian Ocean, 20050328 Nelson 64 1-sec 0.244 0.404
196. Pope John Paul II Dies, 20050402 GCPIONS Group, Patrut, Nelson 66 1-sec 0.057 0.477
197. Pope John's Funeral, 20050408 Nelson 61 1-sec 1.781 0.037
198. Prince Charles' Wedding, 20050409 Patrut 65 1-sec 1.495 0.067
199. Oraworld Resonance, 20050423 Deotto, Nelson 61 1-sec 1.866 0.031
200. Live 8 Concert, 20050702 Nelson and Others 64 1-sec -2.003 0.977
201. London Bombings, 20050707 Nelson and Others 65 1-sec 0.181 0.428
202. Hurricane Katrina, 20050829 Roffey, Nelson 59 1-sec -0.726 0.766
203. Stampede, Baghdad Bridge, 20050831 Nelson 59 1-sec 2.193 0.014
204. End the War Rally, 20050924 Nelson 63 1-sec 1.638 0.051
205. Bali Bombing 2, 20051001 Nelson 63 1-sec 1.844 0.033
206. Earthquake Pakistan, 20051008 Nelson 63 1-sec 1.739 0.041
207. India Train Crash, 20051029 Nelson 61 1-sec 0.347 0.364
208. India Delhi Bombs, 20051029 Nelson 61 1-sec 0.125 0.450
209. Jordan Bombs, 20051109 Nelson 60 1-sec 1.553 0.060
210. New Year Dev-Net Var, 20051231 Nelson, Bancel 60+ 1-sec, Devvar-Netvar -0.510 0.695
211. New Year Covar Min, 20051231 Nelson, Bancel 60+ Covar, 4-min smooth 0.880 0.189
212. Hadj Stoning Stampede, 20060112 Nelson 63 1-sec 0.835 0.202
213. Mudslide Philippines, 20060217 Nelson 61 1-sec 0.771 0.220
214. Golden Dome Bombing, 20060222 Nelson 62 1-sec -0.878 0.810
215. Planetary Play, 20060401 Watson, Nelson 61 1-sec -0.070 0.528
216. Earth Day 2006, 20060422 Vera, Nelson 62 1-sec 1.227 0.110
217. Indonesian Earthquake, 20060527 Nelson 64 1-sec 2.943 0.002
218. Zarkawi News Release, 20060708 Bancel 68 1-sec -0.909 0.818
219. Bombay Train Bombings, 20060711 Nelson 64 1-sec 0.715 0.237
220. Avebury Meditations, 20060722 Koch, Kyborg, Russell, Nelson 63 1-sec 1.033 0.151
221. Qana, Lebanon, 20060730 Nelson 65 1-sec 1.739 0.041
222. Terror Plot Foiled, 20060810 Roffey, Nelson 61 1-sec 1.446 0.074
223. TM Resonance, 20060729-0909 Nelson, Orme-Johnson 65-67 1-sec -2.416 0.992
224. Oraworld Reconciliation, 20061002 Deotto, Nelson 65 1-sec -0.194 0.577
225. Native American Ceremony, 20061007 Nelson 68 1-sec 0.883 0.189
226. US Election Results 2006, 20061108 Roffey, Nelson 64 1-sec 1.429 0.076
227. Gemayel Assassination, 20061121 Nelson 62 1-sec -0.662 0.746
228. Global Deeksha, 20061123 Ardagh, Nelson 64 1-sec 0.006 0.498
229. Global Orgasm for Peace, 20061123 Sheehan, Nelson 66 1-sec 0.604 0.273
230. Saddam's Execution, 20061230 Bancel 68 1-sec -0.091 0.536
~231. New Year Mean, 2007, 20070101 Nelson 65 1-sec 0.610 0.271
~232. New Year Var, 2007, 20070101 Nelson 65 1-sec 0.580 0.281
233. European Storms, 20070118 Wendt, Nelson 60 1-sec 1.092 0.137
234. Iraq Worst Bombing, 20070203 Nelson 62 1-sec 1.067 0.143
235. World Sound Healing, 20070214 Goldman, Nelson 60 1-sec 0.019 0.492
236. India Train Fire, 20070218 Wendt, Nelson 61 1-sec -1.073 0.858
237. Earth Hour Sydney, 20070331 Wendt, Nelson 65 1-sec -0.729 0.767
238. Solomon Islands Quake, 20070401 Nelson 64 1-sec 0.445 0.328
239. Virginia Tech Massacre, 20070416 Wendt, Nelson 61 1-sec 1.015 0.155
240. Tai Chi & Chigong Day, 20070428 Douglas, Nelson 62 1-sec 0.855 0.196
241. Global Peace Day, 20070520 Giove, Laszlo, Ferenc, Nelson 60 1-sec -2.113 0.983
242. Lightning and Giuliani, 20070606 Nelson 57 1-sec 0.591 0.277
243. Palestine Split, 20070614 Nelson 60 1-sec 0.751 0.226
244. Live Earth, 20070707 Nelson 56 1-sec -0.095 0.538
245. Fire the Grid, 20070717 Many people 56 1-sec 1.528 0.063
246. Bridge Collapse, 20070801 Wendt, Nelson 58 1-sec 0.106 0.458
247. Peru Earthquake, 20070815 Nelson 56 1-sec 0.504 0.307
248. Burning Man 2007, 20070902 Nelson 61 1-sec 1.541 0.062
249. Global OM, 20070915 Nelson 61 1-sec 0.265 0.395
250. International Day Peace, 20070921 Nelson 59 1-sec -0.897 0.815
251. Gore Wins Nobel, 20071012 Nelson 62 1-sec 1.501 0.066
252. Bomb Bhutto Return, 20071018 Nelson 61 1-sec -1.665 0.952
253. Bangladesh Hurricane, 20071115-6 Wendt, Nelson 51 1-sec 1.401 0.081
254. Algerian Bombs, 20071211 Nelson 59 1-sec -0.150 0.560
255. Bhutto Assassination, 200711227 Roffey, Patrut, Nelson 59 1-sec 0.035 0.486
~256. New Year Mean, 2008, 20080101 Nelson 60 1-sec 1.427 0.077
~257. New Year Var, 2008, 20080101 Nelson 60 1-sec 1.088 0.138
258. Kandahar Bombs, 20080224 Nelson 56 1-sec -0.517 0.697


Graph of Accumulating Deviations

This figure represents the history of our formal hypothesis testing. It displays the cumulative deviation of results from chance expectation (shown as the horizontal black line at 0 deviation). Truly random data would produce a jagged curve with no slope, wandering up and down around the horizontal. The dotted smooth curves show the 0.05 and 0.001 probability envelopes that help to define significant versus chance excursions.

The jagged red line shows the accumulating excess of the empirically normalized Z-scores relative to expectation for the complete dataset of rigorously defined events. The overall result is highly significant. The odds against chance are about a million to one.

cumulative deviation,
chisquare

The following figure shows the data with 8 events removed from the period prior to Dec 1 1998 when the network was unstable and consisted of less than 7 eggs.

cumulative deviation,
chisquare