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On Wed, 11 Dec 2002, Al Pasternak sent an email suggesting that the
terrorist attacks in Kenya might have had a noticeable effect on the GCP
network. At approximately 08:00 on Thursday the 28th November 2002 two heat
seeking missiles were shot at Flight No. 582 taking off from Mombassa
Airport in Kenya. In the second part of the attacks, officials said
at about 8:30 a.m. local time a vehicle pulled up to the entrance
of the Paradise Hotel and was refused entry. The men reversed
the truck and then smashed through the gates and set off a
huge explosion that tore through the building. Kenya time is three
hours ahead of GMT thus the time of the attack at the was
0530 GMT.
The prediction was made for deviations in the data
on 28 November 2002 from 0500 to 0800 GMT. This covers both
incidents, and gives a half hour
prior and 2.5 hours aftermath for the bombing,
which is similar to the treatment of other terrorist attacks.
The resulting graph shows a striking downward trend, culminating in a
Chisquare of 10656 on 10800 degrees of freedom, with a p-value of 0.836.
This is a backward trend relative to the prediction for the
standard analysis, but it is not statistically significant.
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