Sir Peter Blake murder

Sir Peter Blake, a seaman from New Zealand who was known the world over was murdered on the 6th of December, 2001. I received an email from Peter French:

In case it is significant to GCP research activities ... 
on Friday, 7 December 2001, "New Zealand awoke" (I first 
heard it on the radio at 6.00am, Friday, 7 December) to the 
"shock news" that a famous "New Zealander", Sir Peter Blake, 
had been killed. 

He was perhaps particularly well-known in our largest city 
Auckland (for his yachting activities there) - Auckland 
being a city where two REGs operate. So, it is possible 
that the output of those REGs has been affected. 

The timing of the incident is not yet clear: A london paper reports on Thursday, 6 December, 2001 Emsworth (England).- Sir Peter Blake, K.B.E., was shot and killed by armed intruders who boarded the "blakexpeditions" vessel Seamaster, anchored off Macapa at the mouth of the River Amazon, early this morning (UK time).

The group of seven or eight armed and hooded intruders boarded Seamaster at approximately 10. 15pm local time, in Macapa at the mouth of the Amazon.

Sir Peter was aboard his Seamaster vessel in the Amazon river mouth when it was attacked by river pirates. The boat was in the region carrying out conservation and scientific research. Brazilian police say the bandits slipped on to rob the vessel, and stole watches, cameras, and an inflatable dinghy.

National MP Murray McCully, who is the former America's Cup Minister, has described Sir Peter as a beacon who stood out in a world of grey murk. He says Sir Peter was a man who made a remarkable impact on the lives of New Zealanders and others around the world. Conservation Minister Sandra Lee says Sir Peter's untimely and tragic death is hard to comprehend. She says there are times in our history when we awaken to a horrible nightmare, and the tragic murder of Sir Peter will always be remembered as such.

I think the time of the murder was 22:15 on the 6th in East Brazil time zone, which is 00:15 on the 7th GMT, and morning on the 7th in New Zealand. We will set the prediction time as 00:00 to 04:00, on 7 Dec, GMT. Seconds resolution, medium confidence.

On May 6 2002, I received a note from Peter W. French saying the date was in error, "I now think that the time was 22.15 on the 5th (not the 6th)." This is the time of the formal analysis.

As you can see in the figure, the outcome for the designated period of time is not according to the standard prediction. The whole network result is strongly negative, while the Auckland egg shows a persistent positive trend. The formal outcome is 14159 on 14400 df, for a p-value of 0.923. It is worth noting that somewhat similar negative trends have been observed in the informal analyses of other deaths.