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Quoting the prediction by Arnold Lettieri: "... the season finale
of the popular CBS-TV show, "Survivor," which has an expected audience of 40
million souls, will yield a small positive deviation of composite
Chi-square from expectation, with a peak somewhere between
2000 and 2200 EST, the time slot for this program."
Although this prediction was US-centric, for the purpose of
learning I decided to accept it as a formal prediction, which would
be treated as a global event in the same spirit as certain
US political and sports events have been. The formal prediction was
for a cumulative deviation of chisquare during the two-hour
period of the show, using one-second resolution, and the expectation was
assigned as low or medium, since experience indicates that this general
category of US-centric, and media-oriented events does not usually yield
a large deviation.
There were 26 eggs reporting at this time, 11 of which were in the US.
The formal prediction does indeed show a small peak early on, as shown
in the following figure, but the
composite value steadily declines to a culmination somewhat lower
than expectation, with Chisquare of 7145.1 on 7200 df, and a
corresponding probability of about 0.6.
Since the primary interest would be in the US, an exploratory look at
the results for the 11 US eggs only is shown in the following figure. It is
very similar in form to the
global composite, with a slightly lower final value.
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