|
The Roll Your Own Blackout event was
suggested for prediction by several people,
including Greg Nelson, Elissa Hoeger, Rick Berger, Sharon Joy
Kleitsch. We agreed that participation in
the voluntary blackout on June 21, 2001 might have an
effect on the EGG network. It was advertized widely via email
networking, and seemed likely to attract considerable attention.
ROLL YOUR OWN BLACK OUT
THE FIRST DAY OF SUMMER
JUNE 21, 2001 THURS EVE,
7-10pm worldwide, all time zones
Because the time period of three hours precluded signal averaging of
independent segments, the decision was made to consider this as
a simple day-long analysis. The 24 hour period
begins at 19:00 somewhere in Asia, and ends at 22:00 Pacific time.
Specifically, this is 05:00 GMT on 21st to 05:00 GMT on the 22nd.
The result was a moderate backward trend, as shown in the first figure,
with Chisquare of 86136 on 86400 df and p = 0.737.
This was probably a US-centric event, with far more people in the US
being aware of it through the Web publicity. An exploration was
therefore made using data only from the US eggs, and for the time that
was specified in the US across its time zones. The following figure
shows the result, which is little different from that of the whole
network. The Chisquare is 21562 on 21600 df, and p = 0.571.
|