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This is an interesting event. I made a formal prediction, but with
reservations as described in the prediction registry entry, quoted below.
The outcome is as exactly neutral as is practically possible, with Chisquare
599.66 on 600 df, for a p-value of 0.496. See also the figure, showing the 10
minute period of the prediction, where the cumulative deviation looks like a
quite ordinary random walk with no trend. This might be interpreted as a
failure of the hypothesis, or as an indication that the Great Experiment II did
not have the sort of effect on global consciousness that we have often seen. Of
course this result also can be interpreted as a confirmation of the
"experimenter effect" in that, as experimenter, I was at best equivocal, as
noted in the Prediction Registry:
On Easter Sunday, April 23, 2000, at 2pm New York time (7pm, GMT) a global
meditation and
prayer event called The Great Experiment II is being promoted by Gregg
Braden, Doreen Virtue
and James Twyman. The event is described in more detail on their website.
Briefly, the suggestion is to, "... at the appropriate time in your time
zone, stop for ten minutes and
follow this simple format: Begin by breathing deeply and get very
comfortable. If you have a small
piece of cloth hold it in your hands ... [You can repeat thoughts such
as,] "I accept peace this
moment for myself and for all sentient beings on this and every planet. I
accept my role as an
Emissary of Light, ... May peace prevail on earth."
The GCP prediction is that there will be a positive deviation during the
10-minute period from
19:00 to 19:10, UTC (corresponding to the time specified in the
announcement). Analysis will use
1-second blocking and the expectation is medium.
Note: Although this is a formal prediction, it has a curious quality,
especially with regard to the
possibility of experimenter influence. The Twyman group announced that I
would be measuring the
effect of their "Great Experiment" in 1998, but that was not true. I
perceive this event as driven in
part by self-promotion, which imparts an undesirable flavor, but at the
same time I believe it has a
good central core and that many people will appreciate it and benefit from
it. Thus the prediction is
made in a context of potential contradictions: I think the event per se
properly belongs with other
widely promoted global meditation events, while at the same time, the
outcome might be affected
by the mixed motives projected in the organizers' promotional literature,
and which I, as
experimenter, keenly feel.
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