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The Inauguration of President Bush took place on January 20, 2001, with
the actual event occurring at 12:02, Washington time. Though the
weather was cold and rainy, it was held outdoors with many dignitaries
present. This was an event of greatest interest to Americans, but
because of the US influence in the world, was likely given lots of
attention by people elsewhere. The formal prediction, based on the
schedule of events, was for an hour centered on the swearing in
ceremony, and specifically that the data collected during this event
would deviate from
expectation. As the following figure shows, it did indeed do so,
although in the opposite direction from our expectation for Global
Events. The probablility of the deviation is 0.879, the
rough equivalent of 1 in 10 odds, which isn't very unusual. However,
the steadiness of the trend is noteworthy. It begins an upturn just
after Bush's acceptance speech, which was the last major event in the
ceremony.
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