This year we revert to the longstanding predictions of a
meanshift (squared Stouffer Z) during 10 minutes surrounding
midnight, and a variance decrease with a minimum at
midnight. These two measures have been assessed for each New
Year since 19981999, a total of 9 years. The probability
for the squared Stouffer Z is a modest p=0.271, with Z=0.610. For the
Variance decrease, a comparison with the distribution of
10000 permutations of the data indicates a modest
probability of 0.281 and Z=0.580 for 20062007.
In addition to the
two figures above representing the results for the current
year, a composite
over the 9 years is also shown. The meanshift is
nonsignificantly negative, contrary to the original
prediction. The variance decrease prediction is supported
with a pvalue of 0.0286.
