Miss World 2000
Mukesh Garg suggested that the Miss World 2000 contest would be a likely event for notice by large numbers of people, and that we should see evidence of a resonance in the global consciousness.
On Sun, 26 Nov 2000, mukesh garg wrote: > Another such event to be observed closely is Miss World contest > to be held on Nov 30 in London. In 1997,it was seen by an estimated > 2.5 billion > people in 155 countries which was a record for any > TV show. Let us see what results we get after this "global event". That sounds good. I will make an entry in the prediction registry. In order to properly assess the event, I need more specific information, in particular the precise time when the most central or important aspect begins and ends. There should be a special part of the program, such as the presentation of the winner, which really draws the most coherent interest. If you can give me those times, we can make a formal prediction. Date: Thu, 30 Nov 2000 10:32:32 -0500 (EST) From: mukesh garg
The prediction is by both of us, and for the formal event, we will look at the last five minutes of the program, from 10:25 to 10:30 London time, with medium expectation and one-second resolution. We will also assess the full two and a half hour of the complete broadcast in an exploratory mode.
The data taken during the declaration of the winner shows a marginally significant trend, with Chisquare = 333.86, on 300 df, for a probability of 0.087. The figure shows a steady departure from expectation.
For context, the next figure shows the full program. This too has a positive trend, with some extreme segments (which are not identified with any particular events. The Chisquare is 9136.2 on 9000 df, and the p-value is 0.155.