Current Results, Original Version

This page contains a table with the original Chisquare based computation, now replaced by Normalized Results based on direct Z-score using empirical variance estimates. The normalized computation is more rigorous than the original, and excludes events that were inadequately specified or statistically redundant. This version of the GCP results is maintained to preserve a complete historical record.

Detailed analyses for registered formal predictions are linked from their table entries.

Additional insights are sought in non-formal Exploratory Studies.

We have preliminary results for effects of Distance and Categories of events.

Results for generalized Inter-Egg Correlation studies are available.

A number of Selected Examples show how the data are assessed.

If you have time, interest, and skills, there are endless things to do with these data.


Introduction

Five years after its inception, the GCP continues to develop. There are over 60 active eggs as of the end of 2003, in Europe, the US, Canada, India, Fiji, New Zealand, Japan, China, Russia, Brazil, Africa, Thailand, and Australia. We hypothesize that our instruments (the "eggs") will show anomalous deviations associated with Global Events when there is widespread participation or reaction to the event, and we can expect large-scale coherence and resonance.

We have made 175 formal predictions, based on intuitive grounds educated by accumulating experience. A "rigorous" subset of 160 events excludes redundant and poorly specified cases identified in an external review. The latter are marked in the table with a red asterisk. At this time (Summer 2004) we are working to convert all calculations to use empirical rather than theoretical expectations, so table values will change, though probably not drastically; a "normalized" value in Table 1 roughly estimates the effect of this correction. The GCP Prediction Registry provides narrative descriptions of predictions made up to mid 2003, and the up-to-date formal specification, including identification of out "rigorous subset" is given in the Formal Predictions table.

Summaries of the results are given in the following tables and graphs. The first table shows the composite result for all formally specified events, and for the subset of events that pass independently-defined critera for rigorous definition and analysis. For this "rigorous subset" 13 events have been removed for various reasons detailed in the Formal Prediction Table. The calculations in this table are based on the original Chisquare statistics.

We make a one-tailed "Prediction" that the results will show a positive trend, that is, a Chisquare that tends to be larger than its DF. The Chisquare and DF are presented, along with the associated chance probability for the overall Chisquare. The last two columns in the table show the equivalent Z-score (often called "Sigma") for the composite database, and a normalized Z based on empirical estimates of individual egg parameters, as explained below.

In the second table, the results for individual events are shown. Table entries for most events have direct links to more comprehensive analyses. A column with the heading, "Prediction Source", indicates who made the prediction, and gives an estimate of the confidence or expected effect size based on previous experience. The number of contributing "REGs" is shown, and the "Resolution", which indicates the block-size for the analysis. The last two columns show the Z-score for the analysis statistic, and its associated probability. These were originally calculated from Chisquares, using the same number of degrees of freedom (600) for all events, to give them equal weighting.

Following Table 2 we visualize the numerical results given in Table 1. The accumulating evidence for the hypothesis is shown in chronological graphs for all formal predictions, and for the rigorous subset. In such a display the terminal value corresponds to the overall Z-score. In addition to the main figure, some informational graphs are provided for perspective.

We make efforts to assure that the analyses presented are correct, but we are grateful for constructive criticism, and for independent, confirmatory analyses. As of May 2001, we have added a new "control" aspect to the analysis, using a clone dataset based on pseudorandom data. In July, 2001, an independent analysis showed that the empirical standard deviation for many of the eggs is slightly different from the theoretical value. The average change is an increase of 0.0127%. An application of this factor to the formal database will have the net effect of reducing the cumulative total. A more recent comprehensive survey provides a rough estimate for the reduction of the bottom line Z-score by about 5%, compared to the original computation based on the theoretical value (April 2004 this analysis is still incomplete). Table 1 shows this estimate as the "Normalized Z".


Table 1: Overall Summary of Results, August 1998 to April 2004
Category Prediction Chisquare DF Probability Z-Equivalent Normalized Z
All Events (N = 175) Positive Trend 107534 105000 2.051-8 5.486 5.212
Rigorous Subset (N = 162) Positive Trend 99486 97200 1.326-7 5.147 4.889


Table 2: Results for Individual Predicted Events

red = significant; light red = predicted direction; green = opposite and significant

Event Description Prediction Source REGs Resolution Z-score

Probability
1. Embassy Bombings, 980807 Nelson 3 15-min 3.212 0.00066
* Omagh Bombings, 980815 Nelson 4 15-min -0.860 0.805
US Airstrikes, Afghanistan, 980820 Nelson 6 15-min 0.545 0.293
Swissair 111 crash, 980903 Nelson 5 15-min 1.329 0.092
5. McGwire, record homerun, 980908 Nelson 9 15-min 0.739 0.230
Clinton Affair Grand Jury, 980911 Nelson 6 15-min 1.080 0.140
Nicaragua, Casitas collapse, 981030 Nelson 5 15-min -1.064 0.856
Nicaragua, Casitas flooding, 981030 Nelson 5 15-min 0.607 0.272
Global Peace Vigil, Twyman, 981113 Nelson 5 15-min 0.601 0.274
10. * Iraq, 11th hour decision, 981126? Nelson 4 15-min -0.040 0.516
World Peace Prayer, 981210 Nelson 7 15-min -0.128 0.551
Iraq, Bombing, 981217 Nelson 7 15-min -0.388 0.651
House votes impeachment, 981219 Nelson 7 15-min -0.931 0.824
Christmas Eve, UTC, 981224 Etzold 8 15-min -1.024 0.847
15. Christmas Eve, EST, 981224 Etzold 8 15-min -0.083 0.533
Christmas Eve, PST, 981224 Etzold 8 15-min -0.719 0.764
New Years, 24 hrs, 981231 Nelson 9 1-sec 1.375 0.085
* New Years, Times Square, 981231 Nelson 9 1-sec 0.868 0.193
* New Years, Euro vs US, 981231 Bierman 9 1-sec 0.845 0.199
20. * New Years, Maxi vs Mini, 981231 Broughton 9 1-sec (Diff) 1.165 0.122
Columbia, Armenia Quake, 990125 Nelson 9 15-min 0.824 0.205
Senate acquits Clinton, 990212 Nelson 10 15-min 0.210 0.417
Nato Bombs Yugoslavia, 990324 Nelson 12 15-min 1.695 0.045
Dow Closes Over 10000, 990329 Cohen, Nelson 12 15-min 0.372 0.355
25. Praying for Peace, 990403 to 0503 Taylor Var 1-min 0.867 0.193
Littleton School Tragedy, 990420 Polk 11 15-min -0.845 0.801
Autonomy, Israel, PLO, 990505 Kraak 17 15-min -0.716 0.763
"Peace at Last", Headlines, 990610 Nelson 17 15-min 0.459 0.323
Yugo War Ends, Milosevic, 990610 Nelson 17 15-min 1.728 0.042
30. * JFK Jr Crash, 30-min, 990717 Nelson 21 15-min 0.277 0.391
JFK Jr Crash, 3 Hours, 990717 Nelson 21 15-min -0.353 0.638
India, Train Crash, 990801 Nelson 17 15-min 1.995 0.023
* Solar Eclipse, 990811 Nelson 20 15-min -0.008 0.503
* Turkey, Earthquake, 30-min, 990817 Nelson 20 15-min 2.257 0.012
35. Turkey, Earthquake, 4 Hours, 990817 Nelson 20 15-min -0.482 0.685
Japan, Nuclear Accident, 990930 Nelson 21 15-min 1.094 0.137
Billion Person Meditation, 991025 Nelson 21 10-min 2.257 0.012
* Typhoon, India, 2 Hours, 991029 Nelson 22 15-min -0.499 0.691
Typhoon, India, 24 Hours, 991029-30 Nelson 23 15-min -0.038 0.515
40. Earthquake, Turkey II, 2 Hrs ±, 991112 Dunne 21 15-min 0.893 0.186
Full Moon, Solstice, 4.8 Min, 991222 Fournier 25 1-sec, epoch -0.113 0.545
New Year, Y2K, 24 hrs, 19991231 Nelson 28 1-sec, epoch 1.138 0.128
New Year, Y2K, Variance, 19991231 Radin 27 1-sec, epoch 3.011 0.0013
* Hi vs Low Populations, Y2K, 991231 Nelson 27 1-sec (diffs) -0.647 0.741
45. Just A Minute, 1 Min Epoch, 20000101 Srinivasan 27 1-sec, epoch 2.326 0.010
Papal Visit, Israel, 20000321-26 Reinhilde 27-29 1-min 2.355 0.009
Great Experiment II, 20000423 Nelson 26 1-sec 0.009 0.496
World Earth Healing Day, 20000504 Nelson 26-27 1-sec -0.300 0.618
Concorde Crash, Paris, 20000725 Reinhilde 23 1-sec 0.511 0.305
50. Kursk Tragedy, 30-min, 20000812 Nelson 27 1-sec 1.622 0.052
Kursk, 10 days, 20000812-21 Nelson 24-27 1-min 0.908 0.182
US TV: Survivors Finale, 20000823 Lettieri 26 1-sec -0.453 0.675
Peace Summit Relig Spirit, 20000828-31 Murali Dhar 26 1-min -0.420 0.663
Olympic Opening Ceremony, 20000915 Robin Taylor 25 1-sec 0.272 0.393
55. Group Mind Meditation, 20000924 Nelson 26 1-sec 1.222 0.111
Pierre Trudeau Funeral, 20001003 Chino Srinivasan 29 1-sec 1.203 0.114
Group Mind Meditation 2, 20001022 Matthew Webb 28 1-sec -2.078 0.981
US Election 2000, 20001107, 8, 9 ... Paul Bethke 30-32 1-sec -0.883 0.811
Group Mind Meditation 3, 20001112 Matthew Webb 30 1-sec 0.302 0.381
60. Group Mind Meditation 4, 20001126 Matthew Webb 29 1-sec -0.727 0.766
Miss World 2000, 20001130 Mukesh Garg 31 1-sec 1.359 0.087
US Election 2000, 20001208 Bethke, Nelson 27 1-sec 0.264 0.396
US Election 2000, Finality, 20001212 Nelson, Bethke 30 1-sec 1.872 0.031
New Year 2000-2001 Mean, 20010101 Nelson 34-35 1-sec -0.885 0.812
65. New Year 2000-2001 Var, 20010101 Nelson 34-35 1-sec 1.825 0.034
* Lovewave 010101, 20010101 Nelson, Lettieri 34-35 1-sec 2.688 0.0036
Central America Quake, 20010113 Nelson 35 1-sec 1.425 0.077
Bush Inauguration, 20010120 Nelson 32 1-sec -1.172 0.879
Kumbh Mala, India, 20010124 Panchal, Srinivasan 35 1-sec 1.594 0.055
70. Western India Quake, 20010126 Nelson 33 1-sec -0.897 0.815
WorldPuja Webcast, 20010331 Joanne Karl, Nelson 36 1-sec 0.723 0.235
Johrei Ceremonies, 20010401 Nelson, Ammar 36 1-sec, epoch 1.843 0.033
Earth Day, 2001, 20010422 Nelson 32 1-sec 1.783 0.037
Full Moon in Taurus, 20010507 Don Watson 28 1-sec 0.446 0.328
75. World Peace Meditation, 20010520 Masami Kondo 34 1-sec 0.785 0.216
World Earth Healing Day, 20010621 WEHD Organizer 31 1-sec 0.860 0.195
Roll Your Own Blackout, 20010621 Greg, Elissa, Roger 31 1-sec -0.634 0.737
Beijing Gets 2008 Olympics, 20010713 Peter Bancel 31 1-sec 1.170 0.121
Buddhist Stupa Ceremony, 20010809-17 Peter Bancel 34-37 1-min -0.176 0.570
80. Terrorist Disaster, Sept 11, 20010911 Nelson 37 1-sec 1.901 0.029
* Terror, Variance, Sept 11, 20010911 Dean Radin, Nelson 37 1-sec 1.305 0.096
Silent Prayer, Sept 14, 20010914 Doug Mast 35 1-sec -1.598 0.945
Sea to Shining Sea, 20010922 Paul Bethke 37 1-sec 1.736 0.041
MUM Peace Meditation, 20010923-27 Orme-Johnson 37 1-sec 0.693 0.244
85. Begin Afghan Bombing, 20011007 Nelson 37 1-sec 0.731 0.232
Children Pledge Allegiance, 20011012 William Braud 34 1-sec 0.536 0.296
Binding Spell on Bin Laden, 20011015 Greg Nelson 35 1-sec 0.596 0.276
Assassination in Israel, 20011017 Joseph Menahem 37 1-sec 0.811 0.209
World Series, Yankee Stadium, 20011031 Lettieri, Nelson 35 1-sec 0.014 0.495
90. World-Wide Meditation, 20011111 Wolf, Watson 38 1-sec -0.716 0.763
Crash of AA 587, 20011112 Nick Reiter, Nelson 39 1-sec -1.067 0.857
Ramadan Muslim Prayer, 20011116 Pasternak, Nelson 37 1-sec 1.860 0.031
WorldPuja Meditation, 20011116 Ferguson, Nelson 37 1-sec -0.780 0.782
George Harrison Tribute, 20011203 Watson, Nelson 42 1-sec 0.745 0.228
95. Sir Peter Blake Murdered, 20011206 Peter French 42 1-sec -0.871 0.808
Astrological Moments, 20011209-14 Anonymous, Nelson 42-43 1-sec 1.787 0.037
New Year 2001-2002, Mean, 20020101 Nelson 44 1-sec 0.550 0.291
New Year 2002, Var, 20020101 Nelson 44 1-sec 2.669 0.0038
Volcanic Eruption, Congo, 20020117 Ouko, Nelson 46 1-sec -0.738 0.637
100. Astrid Lindgren Dies, 20020128 Suurküla, Nelson 46 1-sec 0.664 0.253
Winter Olympic Opening, 20020209 Nelson 46 1-sec 1.211 0.113
Sri Lanka Peace Meditation, 20020315 Johnson-Lenz 47 1-sec -0.142 0.556
Earthquake, Afghanistan, 20020325 Nelson 45 1-sec -0.658 0.745
Passover Bombing, 20020327 Roger Nelson 47 1-sec 0.088 0.465
105. Jenin Incursion, Israel, 20020403 Hala Azzam, Nelson 47 1-sec 0.646 0.259
Tiger Woods Triumph, 20020414 Ray Anderson 46 1-sec -0.183 0.572
Indigo Peace Meditation, 20020420 Don Watson 44 1-sec -1.463 0.928
Erfurth School Shooting, 20020426 Roger Nelson 48 1-sec 1.203 0.115
World Cup Soccer, 20020607 Tobias Bodine 48 1-sec 0.058 0.477
110. Astrological Moments II, 20020620-23 Anonymous, Nelson 47-45 1-sec 1.379 0.084
Summer Solstice 2002, 20020621 Joe Giove 45 1-sec -0.564 0.714
World Cup Soccer, 20020630 Pedro de Oliveira 45 1-sec 0.054 0.478
World Healing Day, 20020822 Tremaine, Giove 50 1-sec 0.510 0.305
911 Anniversary, March Pred, 20020911 Eckhard Etzold 50 1-sec 1.758 0.039
115. 911 Anniversary, Mean, 20020911 Mitchell, Nelson 50 1-sec -0.473 0.682
* 911 Anniversary, Var, 20020911 Nelson 50 1-sec -0.313 0.623
Korea's Birthday, 20021003 Martin Bucholtz 51 1-sec -2.158 0.985
Bali Bombing, 20021012 Nelson 50 1-sec -0.297 0.617
Tyman in Baghdad, 20021012 Multiple Sources 50 1-sec -0.290 0.614
120. EarthDance 2002, 20021012 Petr Douza 50 1-sec -0.189 0.575
Wellstone Crash, 20021025 Nelson 51 1-sec 0.741 0.229
Chechen Hostage Crisis, 20021026 Nelson 51 1-sec 0.154 0.439
Kenyan Terrorist Attacks, 20021128 Pasternak 52 1-sec -0.980 0.836
Suicide Bombing, Grozny, 20021227 Nelson 51 1-sec 0.522 0.301
125. New Year, 2003, Mean , 20030101 Roger Nelson 54 1-sec 2.226 0.013
New Year, 2003, Var , 20030101 Roger Nelson 54 1-sec -0.312 0.623
Tel Aviv Bombing, 20030105 Gadi Guy 52 1-sec -0.118 0.547
Antiwar Protests, 20030118 Ashley Young 50 1-sec 1.384 0.083
Columbia Shuttle Disaster, 20030201 Various, Nelson 48 1-sec -0.972 0.834
130. Peace Meditations, 20030209 Various, Nelson 48 1-sec 0.261 0.397
Global Peace Demonstrations, 20030215 Nelson 48 1-sec 1.764 0.039
Korean Subway Fire, 20030218 Nelson 51 1-sec 0.647 0.259
Lysistrata and Women, 20030303 Nelson 50 1-sec -1.061 0.856
Gather The Women, 20030308 Carol Hansen Grey 50 1-sec -0.776 0.781
135. Serbian Assassination, 20030312 Nelson 50 1-sec -2.075 0.981
Candlelight Vigil, 20030316 Various & Nelson 51 1-sec 1.309 0.095
War in Iraq, 20030320 Nelson 48 1-sec -0.189 0.575
GE Prayer for Bush, 20030401 Nelson 51 1-sec 1.328 0.092
Saddam Falls, War Ends, 20030409 Nelson 52 1-sec 1.829 0.034
140. Bombing in Riyadh, 20030512 Nelson 53 1-sec 0.736 0.231
Bombing in Morroco, 20030516 Nelson 50 1-sec 1.359 0.087
Earthquake in Algeria, 20030521 Nelson 52 1-sec 0.681 0.248
Aqaba Summit, Middle East, 20030604 Nelson 54 1-sec 0.800 0.212
Rainbow 4th of July, 20030704 Nelson 54 1-sec 0.306 0.380
145. Love, Peace, Water, 20030725 Nelson 49 1-sec 0.398 0.345
Manila Coup Attempt, 20030727 Beth Macdonald 51 1-sec 1.298 0.097
Blackout 2003, 20030814 Nelson 48 1-sec -0.350 0.637
Baghdad, UN Bombing, 20030819 Nelson 45 1-sec 0.448 0.327
Mars Close Approach, 20030827 Adrian Patrut 49-50 1-sec -0.361 0.641
150. World Healing 2003, 20030910 Various 55 1-sec -0.885 0.812
911 Anniversary, 20030911 Nelson 55 1-sec -0.340 0.633
Typhoon in Korea, 20030912 Nelson 55 1-sec 0.476 0.317
Dalai Lama in NYC, 20030921 Nelson 52 1-sec 0.192 0.424
Harmonic Concordance, 20031109 Mirehiel 52 1-sec 0.622 0.267
155. Turkish Synagogue Bomb, 20031115 Various 53 1-sec 1.745 0.041
Turkish Bank & Consulate, 20031120 Various 52 1-sec -0.008 0.503
Russian Bombing, 20031205 Nelson 50 1-sec -1.329 0.908
Saddam Hussein Captured, 20031213 Nelson 51 1-sec -0.175 0.570
Opra Winfrey in Africa, 20031218 Nelson 52 1-sec 0.192 0.424
160. Earthquake in Bam, Iran, 20031226 Nelson 53 1-sec 0.366 0.357
60 Seconds for Peace, 20031227 Craig Hamilton 54 1-sec 1.248 0.106
New Year, 2004, Mean, 20040101 Nelson 54 1-sec -1.262 0.897
New Year, 2004, Var, 20040101 Nelson 54 1-sec 2.097 0.018
Hadj Ritual Tragedy, 20040201 Nelson 53 1-sec 0.861 0.195
165. Iran Train Explosion, 20040218 Nelson 52 1-sec 0.973 0.165
Oscar Ceremonies, 20040229 Nelson 57 1-sec -0.013 0.505
Attacks on Shiites, 20040302 Nelson 59 1-sec 0.659 0.255
Terror Attacks in Madrid, 20040311 Nelson, Lassen, Bierman 59 1-sec -1.941 0.974
Demonstrations in Spain, 20040312 Nelson, Lassen 59 1-sec 1.648 0.050
170. Global Day of Peace, 20040320 Carl Haag, Nelson 57 1-sec -1.277 0.899
Cricket, India vs Pakistan, 20040324 Srinivasan, Nelson 60 1-sec 1.285 0.099
Rantisi Assassiation, 20040417 Nelson 62 1-sec -0.132 0.553
Korean Train Explosion, 20040422 Don Watson 60 1-sec 0.894 0.186
Floods in Haiti, 20040524 Nelson 65 1-sec 0.614 0.270
175. Iraq Insurgent Bombs, 20040624 Nelson 63 1-sec 0.945 0.172

Graphs of Accumulating Chisquare

The following figure presents the cumulative deviation of the formal results from chance expectation, which is shown as the horizontal black line at 0 deviation. Truly random data would produce a jagged curve with no slope, wandering up and down around the horizontal. The dotted smooth curves show the 0.00001 and 0.05 probability envelopes that help to define significant versus chance excursions.

The jagged red line shows the accumulating excess of the actual Chisquares relative to expectation for the complete dataset including 13 events that are excluded from the formal set for rigorous calculations. These have problems such as weak or incomplete specification, overlap or dependence with other events. The rigorous subset is based on a careful, skeptical assessment made in March, 2003, of the database of 130 events at that time. This assessment also resulted in more careful application of rules to avoid problems in future event definitions. The black curve represents the robust subset restricted to those accepted by the sharply defined rigorous criteria. Although the removal of the imperfect trials reduces the significance, it remains impressive.
(The notation "e-8" in the graph legend means "x 10-8".)

cumulative deviation, chisquare

The next figure shows a sample of 10 recalculations of the cumulative deviation using random Chisquares for the actual degrees of freedom. This graph was created based on the results as of February, 2001. The composite probability for the random data is a non-significant p = 0.123, and the variation provides a background against which the actual data clearly stand out.

cumulative deviation, chisquare

For a couple of years, I tried to guess the likelihood of a strong effect for the predictions, and rate it as low, medium, or high. The following figure shows the subset for which a high effect was predicted. The trend is more consistently positive, and the final probability is slightly more extreme than for the full subset. I stopped making these confidence ratings in a serious way sometime in 2002, so the figure covers only up to New Years 2002. This figure also includes a few events that are not acceptable by the strict criteria for formal trials. It is retained here as a kind of exploratory look at the ability to make accurate confidence ratings.

cumulative deviation, hi-prediction only

Introduction
Selected Examples

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