Typhoon in Orissa, India
From CNN.com: "Giant cyclone slams into India's coast. BHUBANESWAR,
India (AP) -- A powerful cyclone, the second in two weeks, slammed into
India's eastern coast today as authorities packed villagers into trucks
in an effort to evacuate 20,000 people. The cyclone bearing winds up to 155 mph
hit along 300 miles of coastline in the states of Orissa and West Bengal
at midday today (29 October)."
This was a large-scale and continuing disaster, for which it was difficult to identify a corresponding, simple prediction. We thus made two predictions which were exploratory in nature. An "earth consciousness" prediction was intended to see whether the beginning of the event would show a noteworthy reaction. This was set as a prediction for two hours surrounding midday (noon in Orissa), to be analysed in 15-minute blocks. The GMT times are 04:30 to 06:30, 29 October, 1999. A second prediction addressed the extended development of the disaster for 24 hours, with one-hour blocks, from 04:30, 29 October to 04:30, 30 October, 1999. Both predictions are formal, with a medium expectation.
First, the short span of time at midday. The trace shows no GCP response correlated with the first hours of the disaster.
The second figure shows the 24 hour period beginning at 04:30 on the 29th of October. Again the trace is relatively flat, and does not show a correlated deviation in response to the ongoing disaster in Orissa.
(November, 1999, RDN, Figure by George deBeaumont).