Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump Summit

From CBS News

President Trump has arrived in Singapore for the historic U.S.-North Korea summit. He is scheduled to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at 9 p.m. ET, and the stakes are high for both leaders. While Kim's regime seeks sanctions relief, Mr. Trump aims to strike a deal to denuclearize the Korean peninsula. It is unclear if the regime's human rights violations will come into play during the meeting.

Planned Schedule, Tuesday, Singapore local time

8:00 a.m. President Trump departs his hotel en route to Capella Singapore

8:20 a.m. Mr. Trump arrives at Capella Singapore on Sentosa Island

9:00 a.m. Mr. Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un greet each other

9:15 a.m. Mr. Trump and Kim one-on-one bilateral meeting

10:00 a.m. Expanded bilateral Trump-Kim meeting

11:30 a.m. Working lunch with both leaders

4:00 p.m. Trump press conference

6:30 p.m. Mr. Trump departs Capella for Paya Lebar Air Base, Singapore-- arrives 20 minutes later

7:00 p.m. Mr. Trump departs, en route to Guam. He will make stops in Hawaii and Joint Base

Specific Hypothesis and Results

This is an exploration, with a standard 24 hour analysis protocol, beginning at 08:00 Singapore time (00:00 UTC). Important scheduled events are marked on the graph. Because of the low signal to noise ratio, the details of a graph showing the data aren't reliably interpretable. That said, there is a notable positive trend beginning shortly before the first meeting of the two leaders, which continues most of the first 12 hours except for a strong negative segment during the lunch period. After the meeting, the data show a strong and persistent negative trend for the rest of the UTC day. This corresponds to morning in the west.

Interpretation

The following graph is a visual display of the statistical result. It shows the second-by-second accumulation of small deviations of the data from what’s expected. Our prediction is that deviations will tend to be positive, and if this is so, the jagged line will tend to go upward. If the endpoint is positive, this is evidence for the general hypothesis and adds to the bottom line. If the endpoint is outside the smooth curve showing 0.05 probability, the deviation is nominally significant. If the trend of the cumulative deviation is downward, this is evidence against the hypothesis, and is subtracted from the bottom line. For more detail on how to interpret the results, see The Science and related pages, as well as the standard caveat below.

Standard caveat

It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny statistical effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from noise. This means that every success might be largely driven by chance, and every null might include a real signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect can be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of similar analyses.