10 Billion Beats
An web-promoted synchronized drumming event
called "10 Billion Beats" was suggested as a
possible GCP event by Carlisle Bergquist in an email on Sept
16th. The website description explains how it works: "The
drumming will occur on Friday Sept. 17, 2010 at 7:00PM in
every time zone moving from east to west. (Please note --
the date will change to Saturday Sept 18, as we cross the
International Date Line.) Groups will gather in homes, in
town squares, city parks, and country fields. We will start
the beat on a hilltop in Kansas and catch it again the
following day. Each group will drum for at least one (1)
hour so that the next time zone will pick up the beat and
our "joyful noise" will roll with the hour around the world.
The right size group is you and everyone you can think to
invite. This is a grassroots event—you and I are the
The GCP event was set for the 24 hours beginning at 7:00 pm CDT, which is midnight UTC. Thus, the data for the event are exactly the 24 hours of 18 Sept 2010. The result is Chisquare 86602 on 86400 df for p = 0.313 and Z = 0.486.
It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny statistical effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from noise. This means that every "success" might be largely driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect can be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of similar analyses.