Global Consciousness Project

 
What is the nature of Global Consciousness?

Formal Results: Testing the GCP Hypothesis

A Bottom Line Graph
pictures the history of accumulated deviations from expectation.
The Hypothesis Registry
defines formal events. Analyses are linked from Table 2 below.
Exploratory Studies
provide additional insight, and help develop formal hypotheses.

Introduction

More than 15 years after its inception, the GCP continues to gather data. There are over 60 active eggs in the network, in Europe, the US, Canada, India, Fiji, New Zealand, Japan, China, Russia, Brazil, Africa, Thailand, South America, Australia. We hypothesize that our instrument (the network of eggs) will show anomalous deviations associated with Global Events when there is widespread participation or reaction to the event.

Specific tests of the hypothesis are formalized using a regular set of required specifications. The test events are entered into a table in our Formal Hypothesis Registry which provides a priori identification and complete specification of all parameters we use for statistical analysis and inferences.

Table 1 shows the composite result for all formally specified events.

Table 2 shows the results for individual events. Table entries for most events have direct links to a description and analysis. The events are identified by name and date, and a column with the heading, Hypothesis Source, indicates who made the prediction. The number of contributing REGs is shown, and the Resolution, which indicates the block-size for the analysis. The last two columns show the Z-score statistic for the analysis, and its associated probability. A few early events were poorly defined or did not use standard analysis. They are marked with red asterisks (*). Statistics for very recent events (marked with ) will change slightly when normalized calculations are done. The table is sortable by columns.

Following Table 2, the composite numerical results are presented visually. The evidence for the general hypothesis is shown in a scatterplot and in a chronological graph of the accumulating formal data. In the latter display, the terminal value corresponds to the overall Z-score.

Table 1: Overall Summary of Results
August 1998 to December 2014

Category Hypothesis Number of Events Stouffer Z Probability
Rigorously Defined Events Positive Deviation 479 7.154 4.189x10-13

Table 2: Results for Individual Events

red
= significant
light red
= predicted direction
green
= opposite and significant
(Click on table headings to sort by column, courtesy Marjorie Simmons.)
Event Description Timeframe Hypothesis Source REGs Resolution Z-score Probability
1 Embassy Bombings 19980807 Nelson 3 15-min 3.209 0.001
2Omagh Bombings * 19980815 Nelson 4 15-min -0.675 0.750
3US Airstrikes, Afghanistan 19980820 Nelson 6 15-min 1.146 0.126
4Swissair 111 crash 19980903 Nelson 5 15-min 1.336 0.091
5McGwire, record homerun 19980908 Nelson 9 15-min 1.320 0.093
6Clinton Affair Grand Jury 19980911 Nelson 6 15-min 0.387 0.349
7Nicaragua, Casitas collapse 19981030 Nelson 5 15-min -1.085 0.861
8Nicaragua, Casitas flooding 19981030 Nelson 5 15-min 1.215 0.113
9Global Peace Vigil, Twyman 19981113 Nelson 5 15-min 1.223 0.111
10Iraq, 11th hour decision * 19981126? Nelson 4 15-min -0.412 0.659
11World Peace Prayer 19981210 Nelson 7 15-min -0.135 0.554
12Iraq, Bombing 19981217 Nelson 7 15-min -0.535 0.704
13House votes impeachment 19981219 Nelson 7 15-min -0.934 0.825
14Christmas Eve, UTC 19981224 Etzold 8 15-min -1.026 0.848
15Christmas Eve, EST 19981224 Etzold 8 15-min -0.079 0.531
16Christmas Eve, PST 19981224 Etzold 8 15-min -0.715 0.763
17 New Years, 24 hrs 19981231 Nelson 9 1-sec -0.171 0.568
18 New Years, Times Square * 19981231 Nelson 9 1-sec 0.871 0.208
19 New Years, Euro vs US ** 19981231 Bierman 9 1-sec 0.845 0.199
20 New Years, Maxi vs Mini ** 19981231 Broughton 9 1-sec (Diff) 1.165 0.122
21Colombia, Armenia Quake 19990125 Nelson 9 15-min 0.823 0.205
22 Senate acquits Clinton 19990212 Nelson 10 15-min 0.217 0.414
23 Nato Bombs Yugoslavia 19990324 Nelson 12 15-min 1.691 0.045
24Dow Closes Over 10000 19990329 Cohen, Nelson 12 15-min 0.384 0.350
25 Praying for Peace 19990403 - 19990503 Taylor Var 1-min 0.819 0.206
26 Littleton School Tragedy 19990420 Polk 11 15-min -0.844 0.801
27Autonomy, Israel, PLO 19990505 Kraak 17 15-min -0.057 0.523
28"Peace at Last", Headlines 19990610 Nelson 17 15-min 0.505 0.307
29Yugo War Ends, Milosevic 19990610 Nelson 17 15-min 1.313 0.095
30 JFK Jr Crash, 30-min * 19990717 Nelson 21 15-min 0.283 0.389
31JFK Jr Crash, 3 Hours 19990717 Nelson 21 15-min 1.344 0.089
32 India, Train Crash 19990801 Nelson 17 15-min 1.813 0.035
33 Solar Eclipse * 19990811 Wackermann, Nelson 20 15-min -0.006 0.502
34 Turkey, Earthquake, 30-min * 19990817 Nelson 20 15-min -0.689 0.754
35 Turkey, Earthquake, 4 Hours 19990817 Nelson 20 15-min -0.171 0.568
36 Japan, Nuclear Accident 19990930 Nelson 21 15-min 1.088 0.138
37 Billion Person Meditation 19991025 Nelson 21 10-min 2.242 0.012
38 Typhoon, India, 2 Hours * 19991029 Nelson 22 15-min -0.583 0.720
39 Typhoon, India, 24 Hours 19991029-30 Nelson 23 15-min -0.039 0.516
40 Earthquake, Turkey II, 2 Hrs ? 19991112 Dunne 21 15-min -0.105 0.542
41 Full Moon, Solstice, 4.8 Min 19991222 Fournier 25 1-sec, epoch -0.845 0.801
42 New Year, Y2K, 24 hrs 19991231 Nelson 28 1-sec, epoch -0.407 0.658
43 New Year, Y2K, Variance 19991231 Radin 27 1-sec, epoch 0.157 0.438
44 Hi vs Low Populations, Y2K ** 19991231 Nelson 27 1-sec (diffs) -0.647 0.741
45 Just A Minute, 1 Min Epoch 20000101 Srinivasan 27 1-sec, epoch 0.697 0.243
46 Papal Visit, Israel 20000321-26 Reinhilde 27-29 1-min 2.428 0.008
47 Great Experiment II 20000423 Nelson 26 1-sec -0.230 0.591
48 World Earth Healing Day 20000504 Nelson 26-27 1-sec -0.413 0.660
49 Concorde Crash, Paris 20000725 Reinhilde 23 1-sec -0.715 0.763
50 Kursk Tragedy, 30-min 20000812 Nelson 27 1-sec 1.625 0.052
51 Kursk, 10 days 20000812-21 Nelson 24-27 1-min 1.330 0.092
52 US TV: Survivors Finale 20000824 Lettieri 26 1-sec -0.471 0.681
53 Peace Summit Relig Spirit 20000828-31 Murali Dhar 26 1-min -0.446 0.672
54 Olympic Opening Ceremony 20000915 Robin Taylor 25 1-sec 0.022 0.491
55 Group Mind Meditation 20000924 Nelson 26 1-sec 1.720 0.043
56 Pierre Trudeau Funeral 20001003 Chino Srinivasan 29 1-sec 1.982 0.024
57 Group Mind Meditation 2 20001022 Matthew Webb 28 1-sec -2.085 0.981
58 US Election 2000 20001107, 8, 9 ... Paul Bethke 30-32 1-sec 0.159 0.437
59 Group Mind Meditation 3 20001112 Matthew Webb 30 1-sec 0.027 0.489
60 Group Mind Meditation 4 20001126 Matthew Webb 29 1-sec -0.028 0.511
61 Miss World 2000 20001130 Mukesh Garg 31 1-sec 1.242 0.107
62 US Election 2000 20001208 Bethke, Nelson 27 1-sec 0.438 0.331
63 US Election 2000, Finality 20001212 Nelson, Bethke 30 1-sec 0.934 0.175
64 New Year 2000-2001 Mean 20010101 Nelson 34-35 1-sec -1.776 0.962
65 New Year 2000-2001 Var 20010101 Nelson 34-35 1-sec -0.709 0.761
66 Lovewave 010101 ** 20010101 Nelson, Lettieri 34-35 1-sec 2.688 0.004
67 Central America Quake 20010113 Nelson 35 1-sec 1.446 0.074
68 Bush Inauguration 20010120 Nelson 32 1-sec -0.550 0.709
69 Kumbh Mela, India 20010124 Panchal, Srinivasan 35 1-sec 1.457 0.073
70 Western India Quake 20010126 Nelson 33 1-sec -1.042 0.851
71 WorldPuja Webcast 20010331 Joanne Karl, Nelson 36 1-sec 0.591 0.277
72 Johrei Ceremonies 20010401 Nelson, Ammar 36 1-sec, epoch 1.419 0.078
73 Earth Day, 2001 20010422 Nelson 32 1-sec 1.595 0.055
74 Full Moon in Taurus 20010507 Don Watson 28 1-sec 0.948 0.172
75 World Peace Meditation 20010520 Masami Kondo 34 1-sec 0.773 0.220
76 World Earth Healing Day 20010621 WEHD Organizer 31 1-sec 0.609 0.271
77 Roll Your Own Blackout 20010621 Greg, Elissa, Roger 31 1-sec -0.807 0.790
78 Beijing Gets 2008 Olympics 20010713 Peter Bancel 31 1-sec 0.681 0.248
79 Buddhist Stupa Ceremony 20010809-17 Peter Bancel 34-37 1-min -0.213 0.584
80 Terrorist Disaster, Sept 11 20010911 Nelson 37 1-sec 1.873 0.031
81 Terror, Variance, Sept 11 ** 20010911 Dean Radin, Nelson 37 1-sec 1.305 0.096
82 Silent Prayer, Sept 14 20010914 Doug Mast 35 1-sec 1.087 0.139
83 Sea to Shining Sea 20010922 Paul Bethke 37 1-sec 1.713 0.043
84 MUM Peace Meditation 20010923-27 Orme-Johnson 37 1-sec 0.345 0.365
85 Begin Afghan Bombing 20011007 Nelson 37 1-sec 0.684 0.247
86 Children Pledge Allegiance 20011012 William Braud 34 1-sec 0.568 0.285
87 Binding Spell on Bin Laden 20011015 Greg Nelson 35 1-sec 0.616 0.269
88 Assassination in Israel 20011017 Joseph Menahem 37 1-sec 1.573 0.058
89 World Series, Yankee St 20011031 Lettieri, Nelson 35 1-sec 0.267 0.395
90 World-Wide Meditation 20011111 Wolf, Watson 38 1-sec -0.447 0.673
91 Crash of AA 587 20011112 Nick Reiter, Nelson 39 1-sec -1.123 0.869
92 Ramadan Muslim Prayer 20011116 Pasternak, Nelson 37 1-sec 1.836 0.033
93 WorldPuja Meditation 20011116 Ferguson, Nelson 37 1-sec -0.802 0.789
94 George Harrison Tribute 20011203 Watson, Nelson 42 1-sec 0.222 0.412
95 Sir Peter Blake Murdered 20011206 Peter French 42 1-sec -0.908 0.818
96 Astrological Moments 20011209-14 Anonymous, Nelson 42-43 1-sec 2.207 0.014
97 New Year 2001-2002, Mean 20020101 Nelson 44 1-sec 1.466 0.071
98 New Year 2002, Var 20020101 Nelson 44 1-sec 0.530 0.298
99 Volcanic Eruption, Congo 20020117 Ouko, Nelson 46 1-sec -0.034 0.514
100 Astrid Lindgren Dies 20020128 Suurküla, Nelson 46 1-sec 0.513 0.304
101 Winter Olympic Opening 20020209 Nelson 46 1-sec 1.215 0.112
102 Sri Lanka Peace Meditation 20020315 Johnson-Lenz 47 1-sec -0.085 0.534
103 Earthquake, Afghanistan 20020325 Nelson 45 1-sec -0.680 0.752
104 Passover Bombing 20020327 Roger Nelson 47 1-sec -.064 0.526
105 Jenin Incursion, Israel 20020403 Hala Azzam, Nelson 47 1-sec 0.487 0.313
106 Tiger Woods Triumph 20020414 Ray Anderson 46 1-sec -0.147 0.558
107 Indigo Peace Meditation 20020420 Don Watson 44 1-sec -1.303 0.904
108 Erfurth School Shooting 20020426 Roger Nelson 48 1-sec 0.756 0.225
109 World Cup Soccer 20020607 Tobias Bodine 48 1-sec -0.082 0.533
110 Astrological Moments II 20020620-23 Anonymous, Nelson 47-45 1-sec 1.208 0.114
111 Summer Solstice 2002 20020621 Joe Giove 45 1-sec -0.636 0.738
112 World Cup Soccer 20020630 Pedro de Oliveira 45 1-sec 0.147 0.442
113 World Healing Day 20020822 Tremaine, Giove 50 1-sec 0.993 0.160
114 911 Anniversary, March Pred 20020911 Eckhard Etzold 50 1-sec 1.307 0.096
115 911 Anniversary, Mean 20020911 Mitchell, Nelson 50 1-sec -1.599 0.945
116 911 Anniversary, Var ** 20020911 Nelson 50 1-sec -0.313 0.623
117 Korea's Birthday 20021003 Martin Bucholtz 51 1-sec -2.060 0.980
118 Bali Bombing 20021012 Nelson 50 1-sec -0.274 0.608
119 Twyman in Baghdad 20021012 Multiple Sources 50 1-sec 0.032 0.487
120 EarthDance 2002 20021012 Petr Douza 50 1-sec -0.056 0.522
121 Wellstone Crash 20021025 Nelson 51 1-sec 0.489 0.312
122 Chechen Hostage Crisis 20021026 Nelson 51 1-sec 0.401 0.344
123 Kenyan Terrorist Attacks 20021128 Pasternak 52 1-sec -0.700 0.758
124 Suicide Bombing, Grozny 20021227 Nelson 51 1-sec -0.036 0.514
125 New Year, 2003, Mean 20030101 Roger Nelson 54 1-sec -1.723 0.958
126 New Year, 2003, Var 20030101 Roger Nelson 54 1-sec -0.303 0.619
127 Tel Aviv Bombing 20030105 Gadi Guy 52 1-sec -0.008 0.503
128 Antiwar Protests 20030118 Ashley Young 50 1-sec 1.207 0.114
129 Columbia Shuttle Disaster 20030201 Various, Nelson 48 1-sec -1.014 0.845
130 Peace Meditations 20030209 Various, Nelson 48 1-sec -0.244 0.596
131 Global Peace Demonstrations 20030215 Nelson 48 1-sec 1.483 0.069
132 Korean Subway Fire 20030218 Nelson 51 1-sec 0.625 0.266
133 Lysistrata and Women 20030303 Nelson 50 1-sec -1.707 0.956
134 Gather The Women 20030308 Carol Hansen Grey 50 1-sec -0.532 0.703
135 Serbian Assassination 20030312 Nelson 50 1-sec -1.243 0.893
136 Candlelight Vigil 20030316 Various & Nelson 51 1-sec 1.783 0.037
137 War in Iraq 20030320 Nelson 48 1-sec -0.422 0.663
138 GE Prayer for Bush 20030401 Nelson 51 1-sec -0.155 0.562
139 Saddam Falls, War Ends 20030409 Nelson 52 1-sec 1.341 0.090
140 Bombing in Riyadh 20030512 Nelson 53 1-sec 0.560 0.288
141 Bombing in Morroco 20030516 Nelson 50 1-sec 1.071 0.142
142 Earthquake in Algeria 20030521 Nelson 52 1-sec 0.551 0.291
143 Aqaba Summit, Middle East 20030604 Nelson 54 1-sec 1.136 0.128
144 Rainbow 4th of July 20030704 Nelson 54 1-sec -0.693 0.756
145 Love, Peace, Water 20030725 Nelson 49 1-sec 0.154 0.439
146 Manila Coup Attempt 20030727 Beth Macdonald 51 1-sec 1.054 0.146
147 Blackout 2003 20030814 Nelson 48 1-sec -1.205 0.886
148 Baghdad, UN Bombing 20030819 Nelson 45 1-sec -0.175 0.569
149 Mars Close Approach 20030827 Adrian Patrut 49-50 1-sec 0.623 0.267
150 World Healing 2003 20030910 Various 55 1-sec -1.082 0.860
151 911 Anniversary 20030911 Nelson 55 1-sec -0.382 0.649
152 Typhoon in Korea 20030912 Nelson 55 1-sec 0.365 0.358
153 Dalai Lama in NYC 20030921 Nelson 52 1-sec 0.145 0.442
154 Harmonic Concordance 20031109 Mirehiel 52 1-sec 0.612 0.270
155 Turkish Synagogue Bomb 20031115 Various 53 1-sec 0.425 0.335
156 Turkish Bank & Consulate 20031120 Various 52 1-sec 0.091 0.464
157 Russian Bombing 20031205 Nelson 50 1-sec -1.488 0.932
158 Saddam Hussein Captured 20031213 Nelson 51 1-sec 0.451 0.326
159 Opra Winfrey in Africa 20031218 Nelson 52 1-sec 0.711 0.239
160 Earthquake in Bam, Iran 20031226 Nelson 53 1-sec 0.618 0.268
161 60 Seconds for Peace 20031227 Craig Hamilton 54 1-sec 1.303 0.096
162 New Year, 2004, Mean 20040101 Nelson 54 1-sec 0.180 0.429
163 New Year, 2004, Var 20040101 Nelson 54 1-sec -0.684 0.753
164 Hadj Ritual Tragedy 20040201 Nelson 53 1-sec 0.742 0.229
165 Iran Train Explosion 20040218 Nelson 52 1-sec 1.226 0.110
166 Oscar Ceremonies 20040229 Nelson 57 1-sec 0.159 0.437
167 Attacks on Shiites 20040302 Nelson 59 1-sec 0.617 0.269
168 Terror Attacks in Madrid 20040311 Nelson, Lassen, Bierman 59 1-sec -1.971 0.976
169 Demonstrations in Spain 20040312 Nelson, Lassen 59 1-sec 1.582 0.057
170 Global Day of Peace 20040320 Carl Haag, Nelson 57 1-sec -1.324 0.907
171 Cricket, India vs Pakistan 20040324 Srinivasan, Nelson 60 1-sec 1.243 0.107
172 Rantisi Assassination 20040417 Nelson 62 1-sec -1.110 0.867
173 Korean Train Explosion 20040422 Don Watson 60 1-sec 0.746 0.228
174 Floods in Haiti 20040524 Nelson 65 1-sec 0.534 0.297
175 Iraq Insurgent Bombs 20040624 Nelson 63 1-sec 0.751 0.226
176 Train Crash, Turkey 20040722 Don Watson 64 1-sec -0.854 0.803
177 Democratic Conv, Kerry 20040729 Nelson 63 1-sec 1.881 0.030
178 Fire in Paraguay 20040801 Nelson 64 1-sec 0.364 0.358
179 Bob Morris 20040812 Berger, Nelson 63 1-sec 0.461 0.322
180 Olympic Opening Athens 20040813 Axiomakaros, Piliounis, Nelson 61 1-sec -1.289 0.901
181 Day of Violence 20040831 Nelson 64 1-sec 1.401 0.081
182 Republican Conv, Bush 20040902 Nelson 57 1-sec -0.445 0.672
183 Russian School Hostages 20040903 Nelson 57 1-sec 2.266 0.012
184 Earthdance 2004 20040919 Nelson and Others 60 1-sec -1.490 0.932
185 Peace Vigil + Hurricane 20040921 Nelson and Others 62 1-sec -1.533 0.937
186 Bombing, Taba, Egypt 20041007 Nelson 63 1-sec 1.252 0.105
187 US Elections 2004 20041102 Nelson and Others 64, 63 1-sec -1.223 0.889
188 Arafat Dead 20041111 Nelson 64 1-sec 1.583 0.057
189 Tsunami Indian Ocean 20041226 Nelson 62 1-sec 0.094 0.462
190 New Year, 2005, Mean 20050101 Nelson 57 1-sec -0.634 0.737
191 New Year, 2005, Var 20050101 Nelson 57 1-sec -1.838 0.967
192 Elections in Iraq 20050130 Nelson 62 1-sec 1.606 0.054
193 Hariri Assassination 20050214 Nelson 60 1-sec 0.169 0.433
194 Siyum Daf Yomi 20050301 Spero 62 1-sec -0.091 0.536
195 Quake, Indian Ocean 20050328 Nelson 64 1-sec 0.244 0.404
196 Pope John Paul II Dies 20050402 GCPIONS Group, Patrut, Nelson 66 1-sec 0.057 0.477
197 Pope John's Funeral 20050408 Nelson 61 1-sec 1.781 0.037
198 Prince Charles' Wedding 20050409 Patrut 65 1-sec 1.495 0.067
199 Oraworld Resonance 20050423 Deotto, Nelson 61 1-sec 1.866 0.031
200 Live 8 Concert 20050702 Nelson and Others 64 1-sec -2.003 0.977
201 London Bombings 20050707 Nelson and Others 65 1-sec 0.181 0.428
202 Hurricane Katrina 20050829 Roffey, Nelson 59 1-sec -0.726 0.766
203 Stampede, Baghdad Bridge 20050831 Nelson 59 1-sec 2.193 0.014
204 End the War Rally 20050924 Nelson 63 1-sec 1.638 0.051
205 Bali Bombing 2 20051001 Nelson 63 1-sec 1.844 0.033
206 Earthquake Pakistan 20051008 Nelson 63 1-sec 1.739 0.041
207 India Train Crash 20051029 Nelson 61 1-sec 0.347 0.364
208 India Delhi Bombs 20051029 Nelson 61 1-sec 0.125 0.450
209 Jordan Bombs 20051109 Nelson 60 1-sec 1.553 0.060
210 New Year Dev-Net Var 20051231 Nelson, Bancel 60+ 1-sec, Dev-Net -0.510 0.695
211 New Year Covar Min 20051231 Nelson, Bancel 60+ Covar, smooth 0.880 0.189
212 Hadj Stoning Stampede 20060112 Nelson 63 1-sec 0.835 0.202
213 Mudslide Philippines 20060217 Nelson 61 1-sec 0.771 0.220
214 Golden Dome Bombing 20060222 Nelson 62 1-sec -0.878 0.810
215 Planetary Play 20060401 Watson, Nelson 61 1-sec -0.070 0.528
216 Earth Day 2006 20060422 Vera, Nelson 62 1-sec 1.227 0.110
217 Indonesian Earthquake 20060527 Nelson 64 1-sec 2.943 0.002
218 Zarkawi News Release 20060708 Bancel 68 1-sec -0.909 0.818
219 Bombay Train Bombings 20060711 Nelson 64 1-sec 0.715 0.237
220 Avebury Meditations 20060722 Koch, Kyborg, Russell, Nelson 63 1-sec 1.033 0.151
221 Qana, Lebanon 20060730 Nelson 65 1-sec 1.739 0.041
222 Terror Plot Foiled 20060810 Roffey, Nelson 61 1-sec 1.446 0.074
223 TM Resonance 20060729-0909 Nelson, Orme-Johnson 65-67 1-sec -2.416 0.992
224 Oraworld Reconciliation 20061002 Deotto, Nelson 65 1-sec -0.194 0.577
225 Native American Ceremony 20061007 Nelson 68 1-sec 0.883 0.189
226 US Election Results 2006 20061108 Roffey, Nelson 64 1-sec 1.429 0.076
227 Gemayel Assassination 20061121 Nelson 62 1-sec -0.662 0.746
228 Global Deeksha 20061123 Ardagh, Nelson 64 1-sec 0.006 0.498
229 Global Orgasm for Peace 20061123 Sheehan, Nelson 66 1-sec 0.604 0.273
230 Saddam's Execution 20061230 Bancel 68 1-sec -0.091 0.536
231 New Year Mean, 2007 20070101 Nelson 65 1-sec 0.610 0.271
232 New Year Var, 2007 20070101 Nelson 65 1-sec 0.580 0.281
233 European Storms 20070118 Wendt, Nelson 60 1-sec 1.092 0.137
234 Iraq Worst Bombing 20070203 Nelson 62 1-sec 1.067 0.143
235 World Sound Healing 20070214 Goldman, Nelson 60 1-sec 0.019 0.492
236 India Train Fire 20070218 Wendt, Nelson 61 1-sec -1.073 0.858
237 Earth Hour Sydney 20070331 Wendt, Nelson 65 1-sec -0.729 0.767
238 Solomon Islands Quake 20070401 Nelson 64 1-sec 0.445 0.328
239 Virginia Tech Massacre 20070416 Wendt, Nelson 61 1-sec 1.015 0.155
240 Tai Chi & Chigong Day 20070428 Douglas, Nelson 62 1-sec 0.855 0.196
241 Global Peace Day 20070520 Giove, Laszlo, Ferenc, Nelson 60 1-sec -2.113 0.983
242 Lightning and Giuliani 20070606 Nelson 57 1-sec 0.591 0.277
243 Palestine Split 20070614 Nelson 60 1-sec 0.751 0.226
244 Live Earth 20070707 Nelson 56 1-sec -0.095 0.538
245 Fire the Grid 20070717 Many people 56 1-sec 1.528 0.063
246 Bridge Collapse 20070801 Wendt, Nelson 58 1-sec 0.106 0.458
247 Peru Earthquake 20070815 Nelson 56 1-sec 0.504 0.307
248 Burning Man 2007 20070902 Nelson 61 1-sec 1.541 0.062
249 Global OM 20070915 Nelson 61 1-sec 0.265 0.395
250 International Day Peace 20070921 Nelson 59 1-sec -0.897 0.815
251 Gore Wins Nobel 20071012 Nelson 62 1-sec 1.501 0.066
252 Bomb Bhutto Return 20071018 Nelson 61 1-sec -1.665 0.952
253 Bangladesh Hurricane 20071115-6 Wendt, Nelson 51 1-sec 1.401 0.081
254 Algerian Bombs 20071211 Nelson 59 1-sec -0.150 0.560
255 Bhutto Assassination 20071227 Roffey, Patrut, Nelson 59 1-sec 0.035 0.486
256 New Year Mean, 2008 20080101 Nelson 60 1-sec 1.427 0.077
257 New Year Var, 2008 20080101 Nelson 60 1-sec 1.088 0.138
258 Kandahar Bombs 20080217 Nelson 56 1-sec -0.502 0.692
259 Attacks in Gaza 20080301 Nelson 57 1-sec 1.209 0.113
260 Tibet Demonstrations 20080314 Nelson 58 1-sec 1.458 0.072
261 Earthday 2008 20080422 Giove, Estara, Nelson 58 1-sec 0.595 0.276
262 Cyclone in Myanmar 20080503 Wendt, Harke, Nelson 62 1-sec -0.125 0.550
263 World Laughter Day 20080504 Schaeffner, Nelson 62 1-sec -0.242 0.596
264 Earthquake, China 20080512 Nelson 60 1-sec -1.597 0.945
265 3 Min Silence, China 20080519 Schreiber, Nelson 61 1-sec 0.723 0.235
266 Obama Wins Nomination 20080603 Weiss, Nelson 58 1-sec 2.153 0.016
267 Kabul Car Bombing 20080707 Nelson 52 1-sec 0.214 0.415
268 Olympic Opening Beijing 20080808 Nelson 54 1-sec 1.281 0.100
269 Georgia War Ends 20080812 Nelson 53 1-sec -0.318 0.625
270 World Meditation 20080816 Domjan, Nelson 53 1-sec 1.194 0.116
271 Obama Acceptance Denver 20080829 Zaigraeva, Nelson 53 1-sec 2.039 0.021
272 Palin Acceptance Speech 20080903 Bancel, Nelson 62 1-sec 1.695 0.045
273 McCain Accepts, St Paul 20080904 Nelson 57 1-sec -0.273 0.608
274 Peace Intention Expt 20080904 McTaggart, Bancel, Nelson 56-58 1-sec -1.645 0.950
275 Islamabad Hotel Bombing 20080920 Wendt, Nelson 57 1-sec -0.568 0.715
276 International Day of Peace 20080921 Many people 55 1-sec -0.043 0.517
277 Bailout Vote Fails 20080929 Nelson 57 1-sec 1.255 0.105
278 Temple Stampede Jodhpur 20080930 Wendt, Nelson 57 1-sec -0.782 0.783
279 Phillies Win World Series 20081029 Dunne, Nelson 57 1-sec 1.023 0.153
280 US Elections 2008, Obama 20081029 Bancel, Nelson 60 1-sec 1.635 0.051
281 Mumbai Terror Attacks 20081126 Bancel, Nelson 54 1-sec -0.590 0.722
282 3rd Annual Global-O 20081221 Sheehan, Nelson 57 1-sec 0.590 0.277
283 New Year 2009, Mean 20090101 Nelson 55 1-sec 1.033 0.151
284 New year 2009, Variance 20090101 Nelson 55 1-sec 0.505 0.307
285 Gaza Incursion 20090103 Nelson 59 1-sec 0.581 0.281
286 Miracle on the Hudson 20090115 Nelson 62 1-sec -1.784 0.963
287 Obama Inauguration 20090120 Nelson and others 62 1-sec -1.356 0.912
288 Australian Bushfires 20090207 Nelson 61 1-sec -1.032 0.849
289 Valentine Meditations 20090214 Goldman, McTavish, Nelson 61 1-sec 2.878 0.002
290 Winnenden School Shooting 20090311 Wendt, Nelson 65 1-sec -0.821 0.794
291 G20 News Conference 20090402 Nelson 66 1-sec 0.884 0.188
292 Binghamton Killing Spree 20090403 Wendt, Nelson 68 1-sec -0.936 0.825
293 Earthquake L'Aquila Italy 20090406 Bancel, Nelson 65 1-sec -0.261 0.603
294 Earthday, 2009 20090422 Nelson 64 1-sec 0.052 0.479
295 Swine Flu Panic 20090424 Gallardo 70 1-sec -0.180 0.571
296 India Elections 2009 20090516 Nelson 72 1-sec 0.763 0.223
297 Air France Disappearance 20090601 Wendt, Nelson 67 1-sec 0.796 0.213
298 Iran Election Protests 20090619 Nelson 66 1-sec 1.552 0.060
299 Live H2O Celebration 20090621 Poetschke, Nelson 66 1-sec 0.145 0.442
300 Michael Jackson Dies 20090625 Wendt, Braidwood, Schneider, Nelson 69 1-sec 0.914 0.180
301 Michael Jackson Memorial 20090707 Radin, Nelson 67 1-sec -0.163 0.565
302 Wansdyke Path 2009 20090725 Otto, Koch, Nelson 67 1-sec 1.537 0.062
303 Fire the Grid II 20090728 Fucetola, Nelson 65 1-sec 0.619 0.268
304 Typhoon Hits Taiwan 20090807 Nelson 67 1-sec -0.530 0.702
305 Ted Kennedy Dies 20090825 Nelson 66 1-sec -0.030 0.512
306 Earthquake in Java 20090902 Nelson 67 1-sec 1.191 0.117
307 Internat Day of Peace 20090921 Nelson and many others 65 1-sec 1.637 0.051
308 Tsunami in Samoa 20090929 John Todd, Nelson 62 1-sec 0.195 0.423
309 Earthquake in Padang 20090930 Nelson 62 1-sec 1.449 0.074
310 Obama Peace Nobel 20091009 Weiss, Bancel, Nelson 64 1-sec 0.4210 0.337
311 Action 350 for Climate 20091024 Dowd 64 1-sec 0.052 0.479
312 Baghdad Bombings 20091025 Wendt, Nelson 64 1-sec 1.505 0.066
313 Fort Hood Massacre 20091106 Nelson 64 1-sec 0.246 0.403
314 Haj Arafat Vigil 20091126 Mukesh 69 1-sec -0.454 0.675
315 Haj Stoning Mecca 20091127 Mukesh 68 1-sec 0.830 0.203
316 Bomb Attempt Dec 25 20091225 Nelson 64 1-sec 0.276 0.391
~317 New Year Mean, 2010 20100101 Nelson 63 1-sec 0.887 0.187
~318 New Year Variance, 2010 20100101 Nelson 63 1-sec 0.829 0.203
~319 Pakistan Volleyball Bomb 20100101 Nelson 63 1-sec -1.422 0.923
~320 Earthquake Haiti 20100112 Nelson 69 1-sec -2.060 0.980
~321 State of the Union 20100127 Nelson 63 1-sec 0.808 0.210
~322 Olympic Opening Vancouver 20100212 Nelson 68 1-sec -0.957 0.831
~323 Chile Quake & Tsunami 20100227 Nelson, Wendt, Erbetta 72 1-sec 1.089 0.138
~324 Health Care Reform 20100323 Nelson, Shoup 73 1-sec 1.971 0.024
~325 Moscow Subway Bombings 20100329 Nelson 73 1-sec 0.794 0.214
~326 Mine Explosion, W Va 20100405 Nelson 66 1-sec -0.122 0.549
~327 Mudslides in Brazil 20100408 Nelson 72 1-sec -1.165 0.878
~328 Polish President Killed 20100410 Nelson 70 1-sec 0.607 0.272
~329 Kumbh Mela 2010 20100414 Others, Nelson 73 1-sec 1.578 0.057
~330 China Earthquake Aftermath 20100414 Wendt, Nelson 73 1-sec 1.535 0.062
~331 Earthday 2010 20100422 Many people 71 1-sec -0.237 0.594
~332 Russian Coal Mine 20100510 Nelson 70 1-sec 1.429 0.077
~333 World Shift Day 20100516 Nelson 68 1-sec -0.415 0.661
~334 Lahore Religious Terror 20100528 ASamad Khan 66 1-sec 0.476 0.317
~335 Israel Attacks Flotilla 20100531 Inci Erkin 65 1-sec 2.036 0.021
~336 World Cup 2010 Begin 20100611 Others, Nelson 64 1-sec -0.574 0.717
~337 World Cup Final 2010 20100711 Others, Nelson 66 1-sec -0.120 0.548
~338 Conscious Convergence 20100717 Many people 70 1-sec 0.447 0.327
~339 Love Parade Tragedy 20100724 Matthias Braeunig 67 1-sec 2.168 0.015
~340 Pakistani Floods 20100721-
20100801
Abdul Samad Khan 69-70 1-sec -1.165 0.878
~341 Chilean Miners Alive 20100822 Fernando Erbetta Doyharcabal 61 1-sec 2.137 0.016
~342 Iraq War Ends 20100831 Roger Nelson 67 1-sec 0.948 0.172
~343 Billion Beats 20100918 Carlisle Bergquist 71 1-sec 0.486 0.313
~344 Astrology III.1 20100920 Guido Cante 71 1-sec 1.095 0.137
~345 Internat Peace Day 20100921 Judith Weiss 68 1-sec -0.580 0.719
~346 10.10.10 Celebrations 20101010 Susan Belchamber 63 1-sec -0.161 0.564
~347 Chilean Miners Rescued 20101013 Doyharcabal, Cammack, Wendt 63 1-sec -0.810 0.791
~348 World Forum 2010 20101013 Roger Nelson 67+ 1-sec 1.535 0.062
~349 Indonesia Quake Volcano 20101025 Roger Nelson 68+ 1-sec -0.601 0.726
~350 US Elections 2010 20101103 Doug D'Elia 74 1-sec 0.487 0.313
~351 10.11.11 Meditation 20101111 Many people 69-71 1-sec 1.892 0.029
~352 Cambodia Bridge Tragedy 20101122 Wendt, Nelson 70 1-sec -1.911 0.972
~353 North, South Korea Shelling 20101123 Nelson 70 1-sec 1.393 0.082
~354 Wikileaks Diplomatic Cables 20101128 Kirsten Neiling, Nelson 71 1-sec 1.188 0.118
~355 GoodEarthSingers 20101224 Roger Nelson 75 1-sec -1.126 0.870
~356 New Year Means 20110101 Roger Nelson 74 1-sec -0.282 0.611
~357 New Year Var 20110101 Roger Nelson 74 1-sec 0.412 0.340
~358 Egypt Church Bomb 20110101 Wendt, Nelson 74 1-sec -0.631 0.736
~359 Congresswoman Giffords 20110108 Shoup, Nelson 74 1-sec 0.632 0.264
~360 Brazilian Mudslides 20110112 Nelson, Michael Duggan 72 1-sec 2.330 0.010
~361 Tucson Memorial 20110112 Nelson 72 1-sec -0.479 0.684
~362 Moscow Airport Bomb 20110124 Wendt, Nelson 67 1-sec 0.854 0.197
~363 State of the Union 2011 20110125 Nelson 66 1-sec 1.530 0.063
~364 Day of Rage, Egypt 20110128 Nelson 66 1-sec 0.088 0.465
~365 Egypt Mubarak Protests 20110207 Ahmed Fahmy, Nelson 68 1-sec 1.084 0.139
~366 Mubarak Resigns 20110211 Peter Bancel 66 1-sec -0.666 0.747
~367 Quake Christchurch NZ 20110222 Sancho Early Jones 69 1-sec 1.134 0.128
~368 Libyan Turmoil Continues 20110302 Nelson 66 1-sec 1.489 0.068
~369 Women's Day 2011 20110308 Nelson 66 1-sec -0.326 0.628
~370 Do As One 2011 20110309 Nelson 67 1-sec 0.586 0.279
~371 Japan Quake Tsunami 20110311 Tarlaci, Shoup, Nelson 66 1-sec 0.212 0.416
~372 Mideast & Japan 20110318 Nelson 67 1-sec 0.418 0.338
~373 Water Meditation 20110331 Many people 69 1-sec -0.485 0.686
~374 Earthday 2011 20110422 Many people 71 1-sec 0.282 0.389
~375 Sai Baba Dies 20110424 Osipiak, Nelson 69 1-sec -2.629 0.996
~376 Royal Wedding 20110429 Nelson 69 1-sec -0.102 0.541
~377 Pope Paul Beatification 20110501 Nelson 67 1-sec 0.450 0.325
~378 Bin Laden Killed 20110502 Radin, Bancel, Shoup, Nelson 68 1-sec 0.363 0.358
~379 Tornado Joplin MO 20110522 Nelson 71 1-sec 0.663 0.254
~380 Atlantis, Last Launch 20110708 Kyle Hassler 66 1-sec 1.179 0.119
~381 Women's World Cup 20110717 Shoup, Nelson 65 1-sec -0.224 0.589
~382 Oslo Bomb, Murder 20110722 Hans Wendt 67 1-sec 1.616 0.053
~383 China Train Crash 20110723 Nelson 67 1-sec 0.618 0.268
~384 Downgrade+Helicopter 20110805 Nelson 65 1-sec -0.560 0.712
~385 UK Rioting 20110808 Nelson 64 1-sec 0.788 0.215
~386 Rain in Tunisia 20110814 Houck, Taylor 68 1-sec 0.878 0.190
~387 Libya Day 1 20110821 Nelson 65 1-sec 0.837 0.201
~388 East Coast Quake 20110823 Green, Wendt, Keith N, Verheyen 65 1-sec 1.594 0.055
~389 Hurricane Irene 20110827 Wendt, Nelson 65 1-sec 1.171 0.121
~390 10th Anniversary 9/11 20110911 Many people 67 1-sec 0.136 0.446
~391 Internat Peace Day 2011 20110921 Many people 66 1-sec 3.136 0.001
~392 Troy Davis Execution 20110922 Carol Morrison 67 1-sec -0.507 0.694
~393 Wall Street Protests 20110924 Dr Goobs 68 1-sec 0.858 0.195
~394 Bombing, Mogadishu 20111004 Nelson 65 1-sec -1.988 0.977
~395 Steve Jobs RIP 20111005 Hassler, Conan-Davies, Cheng 65 1-sec 2.145 0.016
~396 Thailand and Greece 20111019 Reinhilde Nelson 34 1-sec -2.935 0.998
~397 Gaddafi Killed 20111020 Many people 34 1-sec 2.380 0.009
~398 Earthquake Turkey 20111023 Nelson 44 1-sec 1.752 0.040
~399 11-11-11 Meditations 20111111 Many people 56 1-sec -0.124 0.549
~400 Kabul Shiite Bombing 20111206 Nelson 60 1-sec -0.533 0.703
~401 Gunman in Liege 20111213 Nelson 61 1-sec -0.029 0.511
~402 Philippine Floods 20111217 Wendt 61 1-sec 0.121 0.452
~403 Kim Jong-Il Dies 20111219 Nelson 61 1-sec 0.155 0.438
~404 New Year Means 20120101 Roger Nelson 58 1-sec 0.440 0.330
~405 New Year Var 20120101 Roger Nelson 58 1-sec 0.898 0.185
~406 Cruise Ship Disaster 20120113 Hans Wendt 60 1-sec -0.476 0.683
~407 SOPA Blackout 20120120 Matt Kolasinski 58 1-sec -1.119 0.885
~408 State of the Union 2012 20120124 Roger Nelson 60 1-sec -0.112 0.545
~409 Syrian Tragedy Cont. 20120209 Roger Nelson 62 1-sec 1.084 0.139
~410 Honduran Prison Fire 20120214 Roger Nelson 59 1-sec 0.757 0.225
~411 Do As One Day 2012 20120310 Roger Nelson 57 1-sec -2.730 0.997
~412 Oakland Shootings 20120402 Wendt, Nelson 53 1-sec -0.659 0.745
~413 Mogadishu Bombing 20120404 Wendt, Nelson 57 1-sec 1.987 0.023
~414 Pakistan Avalanche 20120407 Nelson 59 1-sec 0.798 0.212
~415 Bengal Ferry Disaster 20120430 Nelson 60 1-sec -0.486 0.687
~416 Climate Impact Day 20120505 Nelson 58 1-sec 1.165 0.122
~417 Damascus Bombing 20120510 Nelson 58 1-sec -0.355 0.639
~418 Massacre Syria 20120525 Nelson 61 1-sec -0.799 0.788
~419 Obamacare SCOTUS 20120628 Nelson 62 1-sec 1.222 0.111
~420 Mexico Election 20120701 Alejandro Gallardo 61 1-sec 1.429 0.076
~421 Massacre, Tremseh 20120712 Nelson 57 1-sec 0.197 0.422
~422 Batman Shooting 20120720 Wendt, Nelson 55 1-sec 1.595 0.055
~423 Olympic Open, London 20120727 Nelson 49 1-sec -0.274 0.608
~424 Sikh Temple Shootings 20120805 Nelson 53 1-sec 0.341 0.366
~425 Romney Acceptance 20120830 Nelson 53 1-sec 0.121 0.452
~426 Burning Man 2012 20120901 IONS team, Nelson 54 1-sec 0.783 0.217
~427 Obama Acceptance 20120906 Nelson 54 1-sec -1.031 0.849
~428 Karachi Factory Fire 20120911 Nelson 50 1-sec 0.413 0.340
~429 Internat Day Peace 20120921 Many People & Orgs 50 1-sec 1.308 0.095
~430 Sandy Hits GCP 20121029 Lian Siderov 52 1-sec -0.164 0.565
~431 Obama Re-elected 20121106 Nelson 52 1-sec 1.414 0.079
~432 Palestine UN Vote 20121106 Nelson 52 1-sec -0.855 0.804
~433 Philippine Typhoon 20121204 Nelson 57 1-sec 0.580 0.281
~434 Mastershift Meditations 20121212 Bethke, Nelson 57 1-sec 0.378 0.353
~435 School Shooting CT 20121214 Nelson 56 1-sec -1.277 0.899
~436 End of Mayan Calendar 20121221 Many people 55 1-sec 1.008 0.157
~437 Dr. Tomorrow Passes 20121230 Jim Semenick, Nelson 56 1-sec 2.064 0.019
~438 New Year Means 20130101 Roger Nelson 56 1-sec 0.444 0.329
~439 New Year Var 20130101 Roger Nelson 56 1-sec -0.176 0.570
~440 Quetta Bombing 20130110 Abdulsamad Khan, Nelson 55 1-sec 0.563 0.287
~441 Obama 2nd Inauguration 20130120 Reinhilde Nelson 53 1-sec -1.618 0.947
~442 Brazil Club Fire 20130127 Duggan, Wendt, Others 54 1-sec -0.373 0.646
~443 Kumbh Mela 2013 20130210 Nelson, Wendt 51 1-sec 1.116 0.132
~444 Pope Benedikt Resigns 20130211 Wendt, Nelson 50 1-sec 1.359 0.087
~445 V-day and Toning 20130214 Goldman, Wee, Nelson, others 50 1-sec 0.005 0.498
~446 Hugo Chavez Dies 20130305 Michael Duggan 55 1-sec -0.417 0.662
~447 International Women's Day 20130308 Roger Nelson 54 1-sec 0.943 0.173
~448 Pope Francis Elected 20130313 Duggan, Nazet, Wendt, Nelson 55 1-sec 0.891 0.186
~449 Boston Bombing 20130415 Wendt, Nelson 55 1-sec -0.723 0.765
~450 Thatcher Funeral 20130417 Duggan, Wendt 54 1-sec -0.260 0.603
~451 Earthquake, Sichuan 20130420 Nelson 53 1-sec 1.411 0.079
~452 Bangladesh Factory Collapse 20130424 Nelson 55 1-sec -0.404 0.657
~453 Night of Hopes 20130516 Yasin AbedRabboh 50 1-sec 0.907 0.182
~454 Oklahoma Tornados 20130520 Hans Wendt 49 1-sec 1.308 0.095
~455 Floods North India 20130617 Roger Nelson 52 1-sec -0.631 0.736
~456 Global Meditation Movement 20130623 Elena Popa 51 1-sec -0.083 0.533
~457 Arizona Firefighters Die 20130629 Hans Wendt, Nelson 51 1-sec -0.777 0.781
~458 Egypt, Morsi Ousted 20130703 Roger Nelson 51 1-sec -1.458 0.928
~459 Royal Birth 20130723 Roger Nelson 49 1-sec 1.227 0.110
~460 Spanish Train Crash 20130724 Wendt, Nelson 47 1-sec -1.395 0.917
~461 Chaos in Egypt 20130814 Wendt, Nelson 47 1-sec 0.176 0.430
~462 Global Meditation 20130825 Anonymous, Nelson 48 1-sec 1.924 0.027
~463 Burning Man 2013 20130831 Nelson 50 1-sec 0.986 0.162
~464 Washington Shootings 20130916 Nelson 46 1-sec -0.384 0.650
~465 Peace Day 2013 20130921 Many people and groups 45 1-sec -0.028 0.511
~466 Quake, Baluchistan 20130924 Nelson 46 1-sec 0.292 0.385
~467 Shipwreck Lampedusa 20131003 Wendt 43 1-sec 0.660 0.255
~468 Conscious Evolution 20131012 Eric Allodi 48 1-sec 0.113 0.455
~469 Million Mask March 20131105 Oliver McDermott 46 1-sec 1.329 0.092
~470 Typhoon Philippines 20131108 Nelson 44 1-sec 0.559 0.288
~471 Portal Activation 20131123 Michiel Schotten 45 1-sec 0.503 0.308
~472 Nelson Mandela Dies 20131205 Many People 45 1-sec 2.238 0.013
~473 New Year Mean 20140101 Roger Nelson 48 1-sec 0.202 0.420
~474 New Year Var 20140101 Roger Nelson 48 1-sec 0.338 0.368
~475 Winter Olympics, 2014 20140207 Roger Nelson 44 1-sec 0.834 0.202
~476 Valentines Day, 2014 20140214 Many people 45 1-sec -0.579 0.719
~477 Malaysian Air MH370 20140308 Nelson 50 1-sec 0.395 0.347
~478 Korean Ferry Disaster 20140416 Nelson 47 1-sec -0.070 0.528
~479 Landslide Afghanistan 20140502 Nelson 45 1-sec -1.476 0.930
~480 ISIS in Iraq 20140609 Nelson 46 1-sec -0.441 0.671
~481 Journalists in Egypt 20140623 Nelson 46 1-sec 1.497 0.067
~482 Germany vs Brazil 20140708 Niclas Kuper 46 1-sec 1.324 0.093
~483 Malaysia Air Crash 20140717 Nelson 48 1-sec -0.241 0.595
~484 Global Peace Meditation 20140808 Alan W, Annette Wolf 42 1-sec -0.729 0.767
~485 Robin Williams Dead 20140811 Dick, Dean, Roger, others 46 1-sec 0.305 0.380
~486 Scottish Referendum 20140919 Zack Haines 42 1-sec 0.500 0.309
~487 Climate and Peace 20140921 Many people 43 1-sec 2.721 0.003
~488 Ottawa Terror 20141022 Nelson 38 1-sec -0.071 0.528
~489 Nigeria Bombing 20141110 Nelson 39 1-sec -1.388 0.909
~490 Sydney Siege 20141215 Anand J, Nelson 38 1-sec -0.779 0.782
~491 Pakistani School Slaughter 20141216 Anand J, Nelson 38 1-sec 0.263 0.396
~492 Winter Solstice 2014 20141221 Nelson 38 1-sec -0.851 0.803

Graph of Accumulating Deviations: The Complete Formal Database

The two following figures represent the history of our formal hypothesis testing. The first shows the Z-scores for more than 425 formally specified events in an ordinary scatterplot. While there is a noticeable positive bias, it is not easy to see its significance. Yet the odds against chance of this meanshift over a database this size are about a hundred billion to one.

image: Z-score deviation
(click for larger image)
Scatterplot of all formal trial results as Z-scores. The distribution is relatively smooth, with no obvious outliers. The difference between the grand mean and expection is about 1/3 standard deviation.

The second figure displays the same data as a cumulative deviation from chance expectation (shown as the horizontal black line at 0 deviation). Truly random data would produce a jagged curve with no slope, wandering up and down around the horizontal. The dotted smooth curves show the 0.05 and 0.001 and 0.000001 probability envelopes that indicate significant versus chance excursions. This figure can be compared with a control distribution using simulations of the event series.

The jagged red line shows the accumulating excess of the empirically normalized Z-scores relative to expectation for the complete dataset of rigorously defined events. The overall result is highly significant. The odds against chance are more than a trillion to one.

image: cumulative deviation, chisquare
(click for larger image)
The bottom line: Expectation is the horizontal dashed line. Formal result is the jagged red line, which plots the cumulative deviation of trial Z-scores from expectation. Smooth curves show envelopes for probability against chance.