Preliminary Draft - September 19, 2001
Global Consciousness Project Analysis for September 11, 2001

Dean Radin

Institute of Noetic Sciences


Based on an analysis of 2.5 months of GCP data, I conclude that a statistical anomaly in this database was associated with the date, time and general location of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. Of more pragmatic importance, there is evidence that the statistical anomalies began to appear about two hours before the actual events unfolded. With a much larger RNG network, distributed uniformly around the world, and with the application of more sophisticated analyses, the GCP may prove to be useful in predicting future events with similar massive impact.


Data analysis procedure

    from each day's raw datafile, calculate empirical mean and sd per egg

    exclude raw egg values < 65 or > 135 (i.e., |z| > 4.9, probably bad data)

    use resulting mean & sd to calculate z score per egg, per day

    calculate z-squared per egg

    sum up all z-squares across eggs, per day, keeping track of the number of eggs

    create 5-minute consolidations of the per-second data, as sums of z-squares

    analyze data using 6 hour sliding window

    calculate z score equivalent for the resulting chi-squares & df

    calculate odds associated with the z scores

       
    plot results, serve with sprinkle of nutmeg, and enjoy

 
 


Figure 1. z scores of 5-minute summaries, across all eggs, for June 30 - September 18, 2001.
 

 
 
 
 
 

Figure 2. Histogram of z scores in Figure 1 (in black) and expected normal curve (in red). This shows that overall the eggs are well behaved, with a slight positive skew. The theoretical mean for the z score is 0; the observed mean is z = -0.0002. The theoretical standard deviation is 1, the actual sd = 0.9972. The Stouffer Z for the observed mean shift is z = -0.031.
 

 
 
Figure 3. Odds against chance for July 15 - September 16, 2001, using a 6-hour sliding window on the 5-minute summary z scores. The large peak is September 11.

 
 
 
Figure 4. Same as Figure 3, using a log scale. There are 1,175 z scores associated with p < .05, or odds > 20. With 23,040 datapoints, one would expect 1,152 such scores (the difference is not significant, z = 0.69).

 
 

Figure 5. This shows observed z scores (in blue, 6 hour sliding window, September 3 to 13) vs. similar scores (in pink) using pseudorandomly generated data. This confirms that the analytical method is not introducing artifacts into the results. The "0" on the x-axis indicates the beginning of a day boundary.
 

 

Figure 6. This shows the odds associated with the z scores in Figure 5, using a log scale.
 

 


Figure 7. This shows the dates associated with maximum z scores obtained after applying sliding windows ranging from 5 minutes to 12 hours in length, in 5 minute increments (a total of 144 windows), to all data from July 15 - September 16. The date where the majority (60%) of the maximum z scores occurs is September 11. This confirms that the spike observed on September 11 is not especially sensitive to the choice of specific window lengths. The second largest cluster of maximum z scores occurs on August 4, which is also the second largest spike in Figure 3.
 

 

Figure 8. This shows the number of times that the date of September 11 appears in the top 10 maximum z scores, after applying the 144 different window lengths. We see that the majority of maximum z scores appears in window lengths ranging from 5.2 to 6.8 hours. This suggests that the length of the "event" on September 11 may be in this range.
 

 

Figure 9. This shows the time of day associated with sliding windows that resulted in maximum z scores observed on September 11. The clustering of times suggests that the "event" may have had three especially meaningful moments: around 5 AM, 6:30 AM, and 8 -10 AM.
 

 

Figure 10. This shows a composite z score for September 11 across all 36 available eggs, using a 6-hour sliding window. The peak is at 9:10 AM. This plot is essentially a high-resolution version of the z scores shown in Figure 5, centered on September 11.
 

 
 
Figure 11. This shows z scores for all individual eggs used in the composite graphed in Figure 10.

 
 
 
 
 

Egg
Type
Host
Category
Hemisphere
111
Auckland New Zealand Australia East
161
Sydney Australia Australia East
1024
Auckland New Zealand Australia East
37
Neuchâtel Switzerland Europe East
101
Edinburgh Scotland Europe East
105
Paris France Europe East
107
Freiburg Germany Europe East
112
Neuchâtel Switzerland Europe East
116
Wien Austria Europe East
134
Malmö Sweden Europe East
142
Søborg Denmark Europe East
1022
Braunschweig Germany Europe East
2006
England England Europe East
2173
Toulouse France Europe East
114
Madras India MidEast East
119
Grahamstown South Africa MidEast East
1026
Bangalore India MidEast East
2225
Sheva Israel MidEast East
108
Sao Brazil South Am West
1013
Mogi Brazil South Am West
1
NJ USA USA West
28
NJ USA USA West
34
NJ USA USA West
106
NY USA USA West
110
CO USA USA West
115
Alberta Canada USA West
118
CA USA USA West
226
Ontario Canada USA West
1005
CA USA USA West
1021
CA USA USA West
1029
NC USA USA West
1223
NC USA USA West
2000
WI USA USA West
2001
CA USA USA West
2002
TX USA USA West
2222
MI USA USA West
 
 
 

Table 1. This lists the egg numbers and their associated locations in terms of state or region, country, continent (roughly), and hemisphere.
 

 
 

Category
z(9:10 AM)
West Hemi
3.14
East Hemi
1.57
 

Table 2. Analysis of 6-hour windowed Stouffer Z scores associated with 9:10 AM, September 11, by combining all eggs within each hemisphere. This suggests that a larger effect "occurred" in the Western hemisphere.
 

 
 
 
 

Category
Num
z(9:10 AM)
Australia
3
1.12
Europe
11
0.34
MidEast
4
1.80
South Am
2
2.15
North Am
16
2.57
 

Table 3. Analysis of 6-hour windowed Stouffer Z scores at 9:10 AM, by country, possibly suggesting that the primary "effect" took place in Northern America.
 

 
 

Region
Num
Comp Peak
East
7
3.0
Middle
5
0.9
West
4
0.2
 

Table 4. Analysis of North American eggs, suggesting that the primary "effect" was in the East coast.
 

 
 
 
 

Date
9/11/2001
     
Time   6 to 10 am
8:40 to 9:10 AM
Hemisphere Western
General area North America
Location East Coast
 

Table 5. Summary: Through analysis of 144 sliding windows, from 5 minutes to 12 hours, in 5 minute increments, we find that over a period of 2.5 months, one date is primarily associated with a statistical anomaly: September 11, 2001. On this date, the time range appearing most often is 6 AM to 10 AM, with a peak at 9:10 AM. The Western hemisphere appears to be responsible for the majority of the statistical anomaly, especially North America, and in particular the East Coast.
 

 
 
 
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