Women's World Cup Final
Japan are FIFA Women's World Cup champions for the first time after a penalty shootout victory over USA, following a drama-charged 2-2 draw in Frankfurt.
Defender Saki Kumagai had the honour of hitting home the decisive spot-kick as Japan triumphed 3-1 in the shootout. USA were twice pegged back but it took Homare Sawa to equalise three minutes from the end of extra time to force penalties.
USA created numerous goalscoring opportunities throughout the match but Aya Miyama's goal nine minutes from the end of the 90 minutes forced extra time, after Alex Morgan had given the Stars and Stripes the lead on 69 minutes. Abby Wambach seemed set to have scored the winner on 104 minutes until Sawa's late intervention.
Dick Shoup sent a note with the time or the winning moment, and we agreed that the GCP event should be a 2-hour period, approximately the whole game. The final goal was at 21:21, and going back 2 hours gives a beginning at 19:21 UTC. The result is Chisquare 7172.512 on 7200 df, for p = 0.589 and Z = -0.224
It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny statistical effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from noise. This means that every "success" might be largely driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect can be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of similar analyses.