Mexico, Elections 2012
I was encouraged to look at the 2012 elections in Mexico by Alejandro Martínez Gallardo, who said, "there is a very polarized election in Mexico, with great controversy, at the wake of a massive protest movement fueled by university students. Yesterday, there were 300 thousand young people in the central square in a political protest. I think the data collected could be very interesting." We discussed the parameters and agreed that the event should be treated in the same way as the 2008 US Election.
The GCP event was set for the 24 hour period from noon on the 1st to noon on the 2nd of June. This corresponds to 17:00 June 1st to 17:00 June 2nd UTC. The result is Chisquare 86994.793 on 86400 df for p = 0.076 and Z = 1.429.
It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny statistical effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from noise. This means that every "success" might be largely driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect can be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of similar analyses.