International Day of Peace, Sept 21 2008

Many individuals wrote to suggest that September 21, the International Day of Peace, would be an appropriate event for the GCP to assess. We have looked at it in the past, and because it does inspire large numbers of people, we have again set the day as a formal event.

The United Nations' International Day of Peace - marked every year on September 21 - is a global holiday when individuals, communities, nations and governments highlight efforts to end conflict and promote peace.
Established by U.N. resolution in 1982, "Peace Day" has grown to include millions of people around the world who participate in all kinds of events, large and small.
For 2008, this new Web site makes it easy to find and promote Peace Day events anywhere in the world. Just click on "Participate!" to locate an event or post information. And explore the rest of the site to learn more about Peace Day and how to get involved.
May Peace Prevail On Earth!

The GCP event was defined as the full GMT 24 hour day. There are local participatory celebrations all around the world, most at around noon. The graph shows small peaks and a couple of strong trends, but the final outcome is almost a null deviation. Chisquare is 86403.6 on 86400 df for p = 0.496 and Z = 0.010.

International Day
of Peace, Sept 21 2008

It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny statistical effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from noise. This means that every "success" might be largely driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect can be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of similar analyses.

GCP Home International Day of Peace 2007

International Day of Peace 2007

The International Day of Peace was established in 1981 by the United Nations as an annual observance of global non-violence and ceasefire. Every year, people in all parts of the world honour peace in various ways on 21 September. Children with flags, Yo-Yo Ma playing the violin, the Secretary-General visiting Al-Salam camp in Sudan, while UN military and police arrive at African Union Headquarters in El Fasher, North Darfur, Sudan.

This year, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon rang the Peace Bell at United Nations Headquarters in New York in the company of the UN Messengers of Peace. Prior to the Day, he called for a 24-hour cessation of hostilities on 21 September, and for a minute of silence at noon time, which was observed at UN Headquarters and in many countries around the world.

In his statement issued to commemorate this year's Day of Peace, Secretary-General Ban said that "Peace is the United Nations' highest calling. It defines our mission. It drives our discourse. And it draws together all of our world wide work, from peacekeeping and preventive diplomacy to promoting human rights and development."

This event was a focal point in the worldwide meditations and activities promoted and monitored by Culture of Peace Initiative (CultureofPeace.org), CommonPassion.org, EarthDance.org, and many others. These organizations constitute a major global gathering of thought and intent for peace. Millions of people probably knew about it, and many participated in various ways.

The GCP event was defined simply as the 24 hour UTC day, with no cumulation of specific events organized locally in various timezones. The result shows Chisquare 86054 on 86400 df, for p = 0.797 and Z = -0.832. The trend is like that shown in a number of events we have analysed assessing large organized meditations. In particular, the outcome is similar to, though not as sharply defined as the May 20 event that was taken as representative of a series of global peace meditations. The period from about 11 am to 4 pm UTC is unusually strong and would have been highly significant if it had been specified in a formal prediction.

GCP Home