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Trump Inauguration

The inauguration of Donald J Trump was attended by his faithful, and broadcast live on all channels. My wife and watched the live coverage, beginning about 11:00, and continuing through the Inauguration, his speech, the several other presentations, and the end of the ceremony.

Trump took the Oath of Office placing his hand on two bibles, one from his childhood and one belonging Abraham Lincoln.

The GCP event was set for 6 hours beginning at 11:00 ET. This included about 45 minutes of settling in. The ceremony itself began at about 11:50 with President Trump taking the Oath of Office administered by Chief Justice Roberts shortly after. The President then gave his Inauguration Address beginning at 12:00 and lasting for about 20 minutes. There were several other presentations, Invocations, music, poetry, and the ceremony ended around 12:30. The time of the Oath is marked in the figure below.

The formal results is Chisquare 21455 on 21600 df, for p = 0.757 and Z = -0.696. Although the data show some brief trends during the ceremony, the overall data sequence is indistinguishable from a random walk. The terminal value is opposite to the standard GCP prediction.


There is no persistent trend during the swearing in or Trump's Inauguration speech, which held some surprises for political observers. It was, as one commentator said, radical. It was not generous commentary and flowing rhetoric about the political world he's entering, but sounded exactly like his campaign speeches. Very populist, aimed at his voters.

It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny statistical effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from noise. This means that every "success" might be largely driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect can be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of similar analyses.

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