Global Consciousness Project Analysis for September 11, 2001

Institute of Noetic Sciences

Based upon an analysis of 3 months of GCP data, I conclude that a statistical anomaly occurred that was associated with the date, time and general location of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. There is also evidence that the anomaly began to appear a few hours before the widely visible events unfolded.

Data analysis procedure

1. download daily raw datafile for June 16 through September 20, 2001

2. calculate daily empirical mean and sd per egg

3. exclude any raw egg values less than or equal to 50 or more than or equal to 150, and eggs with daily empirical means > 103 or < 97, or sd > 6 or sd < 8 (these thresholds are used as indicators that the eggs malfunctioned; well over 99% of the egg data were usable)

4. use resulting mean & sd to calculate a t-score (199df) per egg, per day

5. t (199df) is approximately equal to z, calculate z-squared per egg

6. sum up all z-squares across eggs, per day, keeping track of the number of eggs

7. create 5-minute consolidations of the per-second data, as sums of z-squares

8. analyze data using 6 hour sliding window

9. calculate z score equivalent for the resulting chi-squares & df

10. calculate odds associated with the z scores

11. plot results

Figure 1. z scores of 5-minute summaries, across all eggs, June 16 - September 20, 2001.

Figure 2. Histogram of observed and expected z scores in Figure 1, illustrating that overall the eggs are well-behaved. The theoretical mean for z scores = 0; the observed mean is z = -0.0008. The theoretical standard deviation is 1, the observed sd = 0.9977. The Stouffer Z for the observed mean shift is z = -0.130.

Figure 3. z scores associated with 6-hour sliding window applied to z scores in Figure 1.

Figure 4. One tailed odds against chance for z scores in Figure 3. The large peak is September 11, 9:30 AM.

Figure 5. Subset of z scores from Figure 3, for September 11, 2001. The probability of dropping 6.5 standard deviations in a period of 8 hours or less, determined by randomized permutation analysis applied to data from June 15 to Sept 18, is p = 0.002.

Figure 6. Two-tailed odds against chance for z scores in Figure 5.

Figure 7. Observed z scores (in blue, 6-hour sliding window, September 3 to 13) vs. similar scores (in pink) using pseudorandomly generated data. This confirms that the analytical method does not introduce artifacts into the results. The "0" on the x-axis indicates the beginning of a day boundary.

Figure 8. One-tailed odds associated with the z scores in Figure 5, on a log scale.

Figure 9. Dates associated with maximum z scores obtained after applying sliding windows ranging from 5 minutes to 12 hours in length, in 5 minute increments (a total of 144 windows), to data from July 15 - September 16. The date where the majority (60%) of the maximum z scores occurs is September 11. This indicates that the anomaly observed on September 11 is not especially sensitive to the choice of specific window lengths.

Figure 10. Number of times that September 11appears in the top 10 maximum z scores, after applying the 144 different window lengths. The majority of maximum z scores appears in window lengths ranging from 5.2 to 6.8 hours, suggesting that the length of the "event" on September 11 may be in this range.

Figure 11. Time of day associated with sliding windows resulting in maximum z scores observed on September 11. The clustering of times suggests that the "event" may have had three especially meaningful moments.

Figure 12. z scores associated with individual eggs shown in composite in Figure 5.

 Egg Type Host Category Hemisphere 111 Auckland New Zealand Australia East 161 Sydney Australia Australia East 1024 Auckland New Zealand Australia East 37 Neuchâtel Switzerland Europe East 101 Edinburgh Scotland Europe East 105 Paris France Europe East 107 Freiburg Germany Europe East 112 Neuchâtel Switzerland Europe East 116 Wien Austria Europe East 134 Malmö Sweden Europe East 142 Søborg Denmark Europe East 1022 Braunschweig Germany Europe East 2006 England England Europe East 2173 Toulouse France Europe East 114 Madras India Other East 119 Grahamstown South Africa Other East 1026 Bangalore India Other East 2225 Sheva Israel Other East 108 Sao Brazil South Am West 1013 Mogi Brazil South Am West 1 NJ USA USA West 28 NJ USA USA West 34 NJ USA USA West 106 NY USA USA West 110 CO USA USA West 115 Alberta Canada North Am West 118 CA USA USA West 226 Ontario Canada North Am West 1005 CA USA USA West 1021 CA USA USA West 1029 NC USA USA West 1223 NC USA USA West 2000 WI USA USA West 2001 CA USA USA West 2002 TX USA USA West 2222 MI USA USA West

Table 1. This lists the egg numbers and their associated locations in terms of state or region, country, continent (roughly), and hemisphere.

 Category z(9:10 AM) West Hemi 3.14 East Hemi 1.57

Table 2. Analysis of 6-hour windowed Stouffer Z scores associated with 9:10 AM, September 11, by combining all eggs within each hemisphere. This suggests that a larger effect "occurred" in the Western hemisphere.

 Category Num z(9:10 AM) Australia 3 1.12 Europe 11 0.34 Other 4 1.80 South Am 2 2.15 North Am 16 2.57

Table 3. Analysis of 6-hour windowed Stouffer Z scores at 9:10 AM, by country, possibly suggesting that the primary "effect" took place in North America.

 Region Num Comp Peak East 7 3.0 Middle 5 0.9 West 4 0.2

Table 4. Analysis of North American eggs, suggesting that the primary "effect" was in the East coast.

Summary: Through analysis of 144 sliding windows, from 5 minutes to 12 hours, in 5 minute increments, we find that over a period of 3 months, one date is associated with a statistical anomaly: September 11, 2001. On this date, the time range appearing most often is 6 AM - 10 AM, peaking around 9:00 - 10:00 AM, and the location primarily the East Coast of the USA.

Draft - September 21, 2001 Page 9/9