Cosmophysical Influences, Shnoll, et al.
Simon Shnoll and colleagues have been gathering evidence for the past 40 years on apparent "cosmophysical influences" that produce concentrations of identifiable similarity of regions in time series that should have no similarity beyond chance occurence. They create histograms to represent segments of time series, and examine all the histograms in pairs which have randomly assigned identifiers. Blind judges select pairs which appear similar (algorithmic methods are still being developed), and the frequency is computed for pairs separated by differing time intervals. The finding is that synchronous or adjacent pairs, and pairs at intervals of 24 hours, 27 days, or 365 days show similarity more frequently than they should by chance. Data from a variety of different physical systems have been assessed, for example, counts of radioactive decay for plutonium and cesium sources separated by 200 Kilometers. A recent paper which discusses the procedures and responds to various questions and criticisms is available here, as a pdf document. A selection of comments is available, drawn from the extensive email discussion among researchers interested in automating the comparison process.
Most recently Shnoll and his team have examined data from the GCP -- and they have found the same pattern of similarity between synchronous or adjacent segments of data displayed as histograms, implying that the source of the structure is informational. The following email correspondence and the figures tell the story.
Date: Sun, 25 Jun 2000 16:31:07 +0400 From: Tatyana Zenchenko email@example.com To: rdnelson@Princeton.EDU Dear Dr. Nelson, We were very glad to know about the existence of global physical generator net realized within Global Consciousness Project. We deal with physical noises for many years. These investigations have resulted in a conclusion that processes of any nature are affected by some global cosmophysical factor. It follows from the fact that distributions of time lags between similar histograms have significant maxima, corresponding to basic Earth-Sun periods. Another fact is a very high probability of form coincidence for synchronous (by local time) histograms. These results have been [published over] many years. The latest are: http://ufn.ioc.ac.ru/abstracts/abst98/abst9810.html#d http://www.ufn.ru/ufn2000/ufn00_2/ufn002h.pdf and http://www.copernicus.org/EGS/pce/part_a_vol_24_no8b.html (but we are not sure that the last paper text is available in internet). But this fact was out of attention up to today. Our point of view allows to see the features of time series [in a different way from] analyzing by more traditional methods (Fourier transformation, correlation, random walk and so on). The replacement of original time series by the sequence of histograms gives us the possibility to see the regularities that are invisible for others. Therefore it was rare pleasure for us to see multiple time series, created by your global net (picked up from Internet) and containing (according to our primary treatment) the same effects. We would be glad to know your opinion on the using these data in official publications with all necessary references. And we would be very grateful for information about precise position (coordinates) of each EGG. It is very important for our investigation. During The International Congress of Biometeorology (Austria, 1990) we suggested to create such a global net to study the mutual histograms features for these time series sets. So, we are glad, indeed. With best regards from Prof. Simon Shnoll Sincerely Tatyana Zenchenko
Subject: Re: our result on GCP data Date: Tue, 27 Jun 2000 01:09:01 +0400 From: Tatyana Zenchenko firstname.lastname@example.org To: "Roger D. Nelson"
Subject: Re: our result on GCP data Date: Wed, 28 Jun 2000 13:40:06 +0400 From: Tatyana Zenchenko email@example.com To: rdnelson rdnelson@Princeton.EDU References: 1 Dear Roger, My colleague, Maxim Fedorov, fulfilled necessary statistical estimation for this distribution, so now you can place it on GCP site. I can add, that the red line indicates 99% confidence interval, numbers mean the probabilities of random realization for two central spikes. The description of the estimation procedure used here is now in press, but I doubt, that you use Microsoft Word, so I attached it as a gif-file. rdnelson wrote: > What is most interesting, as I am sure you agree, is that > the random sequences of the GCP data aren't vulnerable to > ordinary EM energies, so the implication is that the effect > is in the informational domain. Of course it will require > much more experience with these materials before any > conclusions should be drawn, but the results will be very > instructive in any case. I absolutely agree. > Also, I think it will be worthwhile to work more on finding > an effective algorithmic matching procedure. Even though the > human judge method can be sound, it would be valuable to > apply the method to much more data. I agree again! Two members of our group, Alexander Konradov and Konstantin Zenchenko, deal with this problem, and can give more competent answers than I, for your possible questions in this realm. But they also participate in the Congress in S-Peterburg next week, so they will be available for links after July 6. My best wishes, Tatyana
A selection of comments is available, drawn from the extensive email discussion generated by recent web-based publications, including the analysis of GCP data. Among them are some analyses using algorithmic methods. Other independent efforts to find algorithmic procedures are under way. One is by Dick Bierman, using wavelet analysis, as described here.
Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2000 21:47:55 +0200 From: Dick J Bierman