Hi Roger, Here's a little update. I should have some pval envelopes done a little later in the day, but at the moment it indeed looks like a zscore of 3 for the correlation on post-9/11 alt-sec netvar sets. The z-score for the pre-9/11 will be small, probably less than 0.4. In terms of pvals, the post-9/11 correlation is near .002. I have also looked at the device variance for the same correlation. There is nothing there. That's very interesting indeed because it helps us in our quest to find "the right statistic". It's looking more and more like the stouffer Zsqr'd aka netvar is a good one. This ties in nicely with the significant result of the event based analyses, which are mostly standard analyses aka netvar. Interestingly, our official NYear variance events measure the device variance and we don't see any effect there. This could be corroborating evidence. So these are some things we can look at with regard to the altsec results. I will send you an updated memo with these new results by the end of the day. When do you want to talk about 'what's next?' -Peter ----- Original Message ----- From: "rdnelson" To: "Peter Bancel" Cc: "Roger D. Nelson" Sent: Sunday, January 09, 2005 12:02 AM Subject: Re: meat? > On Sun, 9 Jan 2005, Peter Bancel wrote: > >> Hi Roger, >> >> Here is a quick note since I haven't checked in in a few days. >> Been working hard. >> >> Things are starting to look very interesting indeed. > > Maybe awesome is not too strong. But I shouldn't commit myself > so strongly before seeing the figures, which did not come > through. If they have good names, you could just send the figs > independently. > > More later, > > Roger >> >> I have been working on two fronts. >> >> The big news is that I have looked at the alternate second data and there is a very clear correlation between the Stouffer z-sqrd cumdev [and its Janus twin, the network variance] for two datasets with alternating seconds of data. That is all odd seconds go to one set and the even seconds go to the other. There is a strong correlation which is exactly what one expects if an anomalous effect is responsible for the structure in the data. [The significance depends on the numbers and I'm calculating empirical distributions for my correlation function. So it will take a day or two to have more precision.] >> >> But it's better than that. >> >> The correlation only comes through for the post-9/11 data. >> And it is coming from the same structure that we see correlating with the poll results. So this alternate second result is independent of the poll result and also supportive of it ( or visa vera) Anyway it is starting to make a very nice story, since we now have >> >> 1. event experiment significant for an effect on short timecsales and connecting to global scales. >> 2. alternate datasets showing significance on long timescales. >> 3. poll results connecting long time behavior to global events. >> >> That's the short of it. >> >> The attached html doc has some more details and some more are to come. >> >> The technical point of importance is that I've devised a correlation test capable of detecting correlations in structure [as opposed to the too limited usual correlation coeffcients that miss detailed structure like peaks]. This is sketched in the doc. >> >> The other front is the poll results. I'll use my structure correlation test to look at the data/poll correlation quantitatively. But another very interesting avenue is to study the correspondance by making a mapping from one to the other. I fiddled around a bit and it looks possible, but it will take some work. It would be a nice demo to show how you can generate the structure in the GCP data by a simple transformation of the poll data. >> >> I think we have some red meat. >> >> At this point we should reconsider the late April date for a meeting. This could be the good moment to do it and we could still make it if we move fast. Read over the doc and let me know what you think. >> >> best, >> >> Peter >> >> > > -- > Roger D. Nelson > Director, Global Consciousness Project > rdnelson@princeton.edu http://noosphere.princeton.edu > >