Did the long-timescale character of the GCP data change after 9/11?.
Vertical bar marks Sept. 11, 2001. [a constant scale factor has been applied to plotted values]
The plot shows the cumulative deviation of the daily values of the network variance from Oct 1, 1998 to Sept. 8, 2004.
There are 2166 plotted daily values. [there is no GCP data for the period Aug 5-8, 2002]

[Graphics:Images/index_gr_1.gif]


Is there a change in network behavior associated with major world events related to terrorism and terror politics?
Polls that ask the question: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the president is handling his job? probe a general sense of political and societal well-being.
Does the network variance grow when there are strong, persistent feelings of unity, rally and common purpose?
Does the network variance decrease when there are strong, persistent polarizing forces?

[Graphics:Images/index_gr_2.gif]


Figure caption: Red trace: US Presidential approval ratings from 6  US polling sources (AP, Harris, Gallup, ABC, Pew, NBC). Blue trace: cumulative deviation of GCP network variance (variance of network mean at one-second resolution). Vertical bars mark major events: Bush Inauguration, shaded region I: Terrorist attack and Afghan campaign (9/11 attacks , Sept 11, 2001 to announcement of Taliban defeat, Dec 16, 2001), shaded region II: Iraq campaign (official announcement of bombing , May 19, 2003 to announcement of end of "major combat operations", May 1, 2003), capture of Saddam Hussein (Dec 13, 2003), Madrid terrorist bombings (March 11, 2004), Bush re-election.
The poll results are for 556 separate polls from Aug 9, 1998 to Dec 15, 2004. Poll dates are take to be the closing day of the polling period [most polls are conducted over 3-4 days]. Values are averaged when more than one poll closes on the same day. There are 506 data points representing 506 unique polling dates.

Same as above, with 3-pt smoothing of poll results.

[Graphics:Images/index_gr_3.gif]

Same as above, with 8-pt smoothing of poll results and 20-pt smoothing of the netwok variance.

[Graphics:Images/index_gr_4.gif]

Below: Point-to-point increments. This is the network variance, without performing a cumulative sum (blue) and the change in poll rating for consecutive polls (red). The values have been re-scaled for visual  comparison.

[Graphics:Images/index_gr_5.gif]

A view of the network variance cumdev and poll plots when both are normalized to unit variance. [normalizations calculated from the real point-to-point values]

[Graphics:Images/index_gr_6.gif]


Converted by Mathematica      January 3, 2005