Thai Cave Rescue

A tremendous amount of attention was given to the dramatic days of concern over the soccer team lost in a cave in Thailand. They were finally rescued in a triumph of careful planning and incredible courage by a large team of trained divers from the Thai Navy SEALs and international rescue divers. Sadly, one of the SEALs lost his life during the rescue efforts.

At around the same time, there was also global attention to the tragic flooding and loss of life in Japan. We set the analysis parameters with a primary focus on the final period of the successful Thai cave rescue.

Extracts from LA Times article:

Twelve boys and their coach were trapped deep in a flooded cave, their oxygen supplies dwindling and torrential rain on the way. By Tuesday, Thailand was jubilantly celebrating the rescue of all 13, an audacious undertaking that swelled national pride — but also gratitude and humility for an operation that was an international effort. Officials called it a model for global cooperation. International journalists covering the event broke into spontaneous, emotional applause at a news conference by Thai officials after the last of the stranded group was brought to the surface.

The drama had begun on June 23 for members of the Wild Boars soccer team, ages 11 to 16, and their coach, Ekapol Chanthawong, 25. The happy ending came Tuesday evening when the last five of the group were taken from the Tham Luang Nang Non cave in northern Thailand, triggering joy and celebration across the country.

It had been a daring operation, in which children equipped with diving gear — some of the boys had to be taught to swim — were ushered through a dangerous tunnel system that would challenge the most experienced cave divers. Rescue experts and divers from around the world took part in the carefully planned operation, with each boy flanked by two rescue divers on the way to the surface. “We are not sure if this is a miracle, a science, or what. All the 13 Wild Boars are now out of the cave,” the Thai navy SEALs posted after the rescue effort.

Specific Hypothesis and Results

The GCP set an exploratory event to assess the data during the end phase beginning at 07:00 local time on 9 July (00:00 UTC) and continuing until the last 4 boys and their coach were brought out, about 19:00 on the 10th. During this same time period there was another major event capturing world attention with tragic flooding and loss of life in Japan. In any case, the results of the analysis show a strong deviation in the data, especially at the beginning of the time period.

Interpretation

The following graph is a visual display of the statistical result. It shows the second-by-second accumulation of small deviations of the data from what’s expected. Our prediction is that deviations will tend to be positive, and if this is so, the jagged line will tend to go upward. If the endpoint is positive, this is evidence for the general hypothesis and adds to the bottom line. If the endpoint is outside the smooth curve showing 0.05 probability, the deviation is nominally significant. If the trend of the cumulative deviation is downward, this is evidence against the hypothesis, and is subtracted from the bottom line. For more detail on how to interpret the results, see The Science and related pages, as well as the standard caveat below.

Standard caveat

It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny statistical effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from noise. This means that every success might be largely driven by chance, and every null might include a real signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect can be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of similar analyses.